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11-04-2016, 08:13 PM
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#166
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,655
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tzipi
Should be on the wire if people are betting their money and they want to get it right for the bettors. On twitter, some people are a bit mad.
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Watching it on TV I thought Beholder finally got her nose/head in front just before the wire but that Songbird got the bob and may have eked out a dead heat or a lucky win. But from the photo it looks like Beholder got every inch of the bob to win by a hair.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-04-2016, 08:14 PM
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#167
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,034
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Watching it on TV I thought Beholder finally got her nose/head in front just before the wire but that Songbird got the bob and may have eked out a dead heat or a lucky win. But from the photo it looks like Beholder got every inch of the bob to win by a hair.
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From the photo, yes, agree. From the video they showed a ton of times to the public, Songbird won.
If you put in Songbird won into twitter, people are showing the photo and slow gif of Songbird keeping her nose in front the whole time. How the camera is not on the wire in the Breeders Cup is beyond me.
Last edited by tzipi; 11-04-2016 at 08:21 PM.
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11-04-2016, 08:18 PM
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#168
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Corona Del Inca breaking down is not what this race needed.
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11-04-2016, 08:20 PM
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#169
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,756
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tzipi
From the photo, yes, agree. From the video they showed a ton of times to the public, Songbird won.
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Yup...like I said in another thread, if you had a gun to my head, I'd be dead. But instead, I cash.
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11-04-2016, 08:21 PM
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#170
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,034
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Yup...like I said in another thread, if you had a gun to my head, I'd be dead. But instead, I cash.
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Me too Pace haha. But congrats!
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11-04-2016, 08:49 PM
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#171
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
It is an "invalid theory" to believe that people betting on pretty names and daughter's ages can move the needle much at all.
Give me an example of an invalid theory that people are using to make their bets.
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You are obviously unaware of all the crazy money bet by large segments of the unsophisticated public at Derby time. That's why you can better prices on the race.
You want an example? How about the theory that horses who finish 2nd in the Derby cannot win the Preakness?
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11-04-2016, 08:56 PM
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#172
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tzipi
From the photo, yes, agree. From the video they showed a ton of times to the public, Songbird won.
If you put in Songbird won into twitter, people are showing the photo and slow gif of Songbird keeping her nose in front the whole time. How the camera is not on the wire in the Breeders Cup is beyond me.
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The only reason the finish was so close is that Songbird actually had the advantage of the head bob. If you look at the photo Beholder's body, saddle and rider were actually more than a head in front.
Actually if Beholder had not gone so wide on both turns she would have won by 4 or 5 lengths. What a great mare to overcome this.
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11-04-2016, 09:17 PM
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#173
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
The only reason the finish was so close is that Songbird actually had the advantage of the head bob. If you look at the photo Beholder's body, saddle and rider were actually more than a head in front.
Actually if Beholder had not gone so wide on both turns she would have won by 4 or 5 lengths. What a great mare to overcome this.
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Beholder wins by 4 or 5 lengths if she wasn't so wide? Maybe 4 or 5 feet, but certainly not lengths. What a great race though!!
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11-04-2016, 09:31 PM
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#174
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 881
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doza
Beholder wins by 4 or 5 lengths if she wasn't so wide? Maybe 4 or 5 feet, but certainly not lengths. What a great race though!!
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According to trakus, she ran 40ft more than Songbird.
At the standard 8ft/length, that's 5 lengths.
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11-04-2016, 09:36 PM
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#175
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nearco
According to trakus, she ran 40ft more than Songbird.
At the standard 8ft/length, that's 5 lengths.
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That's not really a valid extrapolation in this situation, although obviously the trip helped Songbird.
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11-04-2016, 09:39 PM
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#176
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
The stupid money I was referring to in big races like the Derby is that bet by people who know nothing about racing so they bet the horse with a pretty name or their daughters age.
The other kind of foolish money is that bet those that don't know how to use stats and believe in "race specific" handicapping. This creates betting opportunities for those who know what they're doing.
Yes BC races are very contentious with a lot of unknowns, but avoiding invalid theories makes them more predictable.
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There's stupid money in the stock market too. Doesn't negate the efficient markets hypothesis.
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11-04-2016, 09:42 PM
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#177
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
Memory tends to go as you get older.
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3 BC's and an awesome win over colts in the Pacific Classic. There's an argument he is right. Silver Charm is probably the other possibility.
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11-04-2016, 09:53 PM
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#178
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
3 BC's and an awesome win over colts in the Pacific Classic. There's an argument he is right. Silver Charm is probably the other possibility.
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Point Given is the correct answer.
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11-04-2016, 09:55 PM
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#179
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
Point Given is the correct answer.
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Only if you don't care about career accomplishments or the level of competition.
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11-04-2016, 10:32 PM
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#180
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
The only reason the finish was so close is that Songbird actually had the advantage of the head bob. If you look at the photo Beholder's body, saddle and rider were actually more than a head in front.
Actually if Beholder had not gone so wide on both turns she would have won by 4 or 5 lengths. What a great mare to overcome this.
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Omg. You're really hell bent on dissing Songbird it seems. Maybe it's because you took such a big stand against her, calling her a total toss.
You can't just move horses like blocks based on feet ran. There are too many other variables to consider. Both ran a great race and Beholder wasn't so wide for it to have been significant. Beholder was in the garden spot that her trainer wanted her in, because he understands they're not blocks. For all intents and purposes, both had perfect trips and they were separated by a nose.
Last edited by Fager Fan; 11-04-2016 at 10:33 PM.
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