Lukas Derby/Preakness

[zico20]

Most will assume Just Steel needs a breather after his massive collapse, running 17th and losing by more than 30 lengths but history says otherwise. Two things stand out. Almost every Derby horse Lukas has runs back in the Preakness going all the way to the 1980's. Second, when his Derby horses run poorly in Kentucky they almost always run horribly in the Preakness. So expect Just Steel in the Preakness and for him to be nowhere. 11 of his past 12 from 2000 on went with the exception of Commendable, who was saved for the Belmont while his other horse in 2000, High Yield, ran in the Preakness. You have to go back to 1997 with Deeds Not Works who ran in the Derby and not the Preakness with him not having another horse for the race. Who knows why, maybe the horse got hurt. I don't see an 88 year old man changing his routine now.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by zico20

Most will assume Just Steel needs a breather after his massive collapse, running 17th and losing by more than 30 lengths but history says otherwise. Two things stand out. Almost every Derby horse Lukas has runs back in the Preakness going all the way to the 1980's. Second, when his Derby horses run poorly in Kentucky they almost always run horribly in the Preakness. So expect Just Steel in the Preakness and for him to be nowhere. 11 of his past 12 from 2000 on went with the exception of Commendable, who was saved for the Belmont while his other horse in 2000, High Yield, ran in the Preakness. You have to go back to 1997 with Deeds Not Works who ran in the Derby and not the Preakness with him not having another horse for the race. Who knows why, maybe the horse got hurt. I don't see an 88 year old man changing his routine now.

I hope he gives the horse a rest

[Aerocraft67]

I'm biased in favor of because he was my pick. He had to fight through two waves of horses to his outside squeezed into him by the to earn a forward position. Very game but couldn't overcome the energy he had to burn. I hope he gets a more favorable spot next time than Zico's scenario; I'd absolutely consider him again.

[zico20]

Lukas just said he is strongly considering sending Seize the Grey to the Preakness which would mean Just Steel most likely won't go. TO Password is headed back to Japan. There is a great chance no one is going to run in the Preakness from the Derby. McPeek said he wheeled Mystik Dan back in two weeks in November and he tired in the race. He then passed on the Rebel because it was three weeks out from the Southwest. Most of the trainers have said they aren't running.

[PaceAdvantage]

It still amazes me to this day that these finely honed athletes need more than two weeks to recover from a single race.

All the great trainers from yesteryear must be pointing down from the sky and laughing their collective asses off.

[denniswilliams]

One I'd be interested in seeing back from the Derby is Resilience. No way that's happening with Mott.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

One I'd be interested in seeing back from the Derby is Resilience. No way that's happening with Mott.

He is out for the Preakness and most likely also out for the Belmont Mott said.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It still amazes me to this day that these finely honed athletes need more than two weeks to recover from a single race.

All the great trainers from yesteryear must be pointing down from the sky and laughing their collective asses off.

I have been saying the exact same thing. No way a horse runs for under two minutes and then needs three months to run again. Claimers and allowance horses can run every 2-3 weeks and they aren't tired. The problem is there is more concern about the stud fee than running races with the top horses. Lukas is the exception. He said horses are bred to run and if they are sound then he runs them.

[zico20]

Leave it to Lukas to run a horse back on two weeks rest who just lost by over 30 lengths. He is going to run them both, I predict they both lose by over 10 lengths to Muth.

[Spalding No!]

Just Steel was completely taken out of his game being sent to dispute the pace. You can argue he still needs a rest because he's made a lot of starts (relatively speaking), but from a handicapping perspective it makes sense to simply draw a line through his race Saturday.

There have been a multitude of Preakness winners that were off the board in the Kentucky Derby.

In the modern era there have been 3 horses that got fried or beat just as bad as Just Steel on Saturday that came back to win.

Snow Chief
Hansel
Louis Quatorze

Lukas has won the Preakness 6 times; 3 of those were unplaced in the Derby.

Across the pond, Aidan O'Brien persevered with Auguste Rodin in the Epsom Derby after the colt's horrendous showing in the 2000 Guineas, & was rewarded with a impressive victory. He's likely to do the same this year with City of Troy, who performed even worse than Just Steel did this weekend.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Just Steel was completely taken out of his game being sent to dispute the pace. You can argue he still needs a rest because he's made a lot of starts (relatively speaking), but from a handicapping perspective it makes sense to simply draw a line through his race Saturday.

There have been a multitude of Preakness winners that were off the board in the Kentucky Derby.

In the modern era there have been 3 horses that got fried or beat just as bad as Just Steel on Saturday that came back to win.

Snow Chief
Hansel
Louis Quatorze

Lukas has won the Preakness 6 times; 3 of those were unplaced in the Derby.

Across the pond, Aidan O'Brien persevered with Auguste Rodin in the Epsom Derby after the colt's horrendous showing in the 2000 Guineas, & was rewarded with a impressive victory. He's likely to do the same this year with City of Troy, who performed even worse than Just Steel did this weekend.

One was Oxbow who ran a great sixth in the Derby considering he was up close in fast fractions and then crawled the fractions in the Preakness on the front end to win. Just Steel won't get that dream scenario.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by zico20

One was Oxbow who ran a great sixth in the Derby considering he was up close in fast fractions and then crawled the fractions in the Preakness on the front end to win. Just Steel won't get that dream scenario.

Just Steel is not a frontrunner; he needs to revert to his stalking style if he's to make a dent in the Preakness.

Lukas might want to put a more experienced rider up despite all the silly "human interest" blather about him using Asmussen.

[MJC922]

He may fare bit better in the Preakness because it will at least have been closer to the ten weeks or so this horse is demonstrating it's physically/mentally ready to deliver its peak efforts given the current spacing the trainer is trying to use. If you're using my stuff you have a good clear overview of the spacing factor and can start to incorporate it into your approach as another subtle handicapping factor to leverage. The horse was a complete toss in the Derby on spacing IMO and you didn't need to consider anything else. Let's put it this way, if grandpa's phone needs ten hours to fully charge overnight and he tends to unplug it after five hours, don't expect to get near that full runtime every day.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Just Steel is not a frontrunner; he needs to revert to his stalking style if he's to make a dent in the Preakness.

Lukas might want to put a more experienced rider up despite all the silly "human interest" blather about him using Asmussen.

He's doing just that by giving the mount to Rosario.
I'm giving Just Steel a shot to hit the board at good odds.
Muth may run this field off its feet and this colt can pick up a lot of pieces (provided Joel doesn't give him another Derby ride like the Assboy did).

[denniswilliams]

Just Steel and Mystik Dan, probably to a lesser extent, got a lot of help in the Arkansas Derby from Timberlake. Certainly didn't hurt Muth either.

Maybe something goes with Muth early. I like Tuscan Gold.