Cutting Down Factors or Handicapping Angles

[wiretowire68]

Interested to see with the amount of Handicapping Angles i.e. Tom Ainslee and those created in terms Form Patterns. Software that calibrates these angles based on data (that I understand thus software programs are built to recognize the running lines and codes that have been designed to reflect the future probability of a victory for a horse in a race.

Thus, the development of Speed, Pace and Class, to Trip and a running line. My question is if you were not a coder and the old style of reading a past performance and the spidey senses give you that yes...from my past feelings that this horse has a chance. So this part is a joke, I have decided to hook up my brain ala EA games to my computer and simulate those thoughts into the past performances. I have spoken to people about inputting a score for each angle but forget it, there are way too many to put into a spreadsheet that may or may not give you a good estimate based on these principles that have been engraved into the game and then others continue to find there are more.

I took Ray Talbots old style scoring list as well as added some of my own factors or angles I have learned like Advanced Form Pattern Recognitions. etc.

The question or the combined question I have is "Does anyone have a scoring style that is accurate or should a past performance page via running lines be thrown out the window... Just curious, my created Time Card that I created, takes far too long when it comes to clicking through..like "a Stretchout, a Surface Switch, a Cutback, Trainer Switch, 1st Off the Claim.. you get my drift.. Just Curious because I am just about to throw this all out the window... and just go back to reading a past performance with a pen and my notepad..

P.S. particularly due to yesterday and tournament play.... In a 12 race tourney Pick and Pray.. I have 5 horses run... 3rd.... Is the game frustrating absolutely.. I am not gambling right now because I have no job but have enough to play 1 dollar tournaments and I usually hit at least top 5 once a month and there are great players out there but this is worse slop I have ever been...

[acorn54]

of course the unpredictable part of the race is after the gate opens. the jockeys that maneuver the horses only know the ACTUAL riding strategy they will use then. before the race goes off it's just an educated guess. the best selectors of the winner (the public), are only correct 35 percent of the time, so with that as the best that can be achieved , the individual has to expect a low expectancy.

[zerosky]

Equibase's Race Lens has tons of angles (including custom angles) it also has the ability to 'back test each angle to see what works.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by zerosky

Equibase's Race Lens has tons of angles (including custom angles) it also has the ability to 'back test each angle to see what works.

Have you seen my thread on...Race Lens fallacies.....?

They send out 4 races a week and I can certainly say ...the angles have very little substance..

[zerosky]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Have you seen my thread on...Race Lens fallacies.....?

They send out 4 races a week and I can certainly say ...the angles have very little substance..

Yes an interesting thread, I don't use it myself but the ability to back test each angle over the past year seems sound.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by zerosky

Yes an interesting thread, I don't use it myself but the ability to back test each angle over the past year seems sound.

the jcapper software allows the user to back test. been there done that. i can tell you from personal experience that it doesn't work. what works as a successful angle one year doesn't hold up the next year going forward. the dynamics of racing are not static. there is a constant state of flux. one year you can use recency as a potent factor, then the trainer or the trend of trainers as a group change their tactics due to various economic forces. the only konstant in horseracing and life in general is "CHANGE".

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by acorn54

the jcapper software allows the user to back test. been there done that. i can tell you from personal experience that it doesn't work. what works as a successful angle one year doesn't hold up the next year going forward. the dynamics of racing are not static. there is a constant state of flux. one year you can use recency as a potent factor, then the trainer or the trend of trainers as a group change their tactics due to various economic forces. the only konstant in horseracing and life in general is "CHANGE".

It's amazing to me that so many people are still trying this nonsense.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by acorn54

the jcapper software allows the user to back test. been there done that. i can tell you from personal experience that it doesn't work. what works as a successful angle one year doesn't hold up the next year going forward. the dynamics of racing are not static. there is a constant state of flux. one year you can use recency as a potent factor, then the trainer or the trend of trainers as a group change their tactics due to various economic forces. the only konstant in horseracing and life in general is "CHANGE".

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

It's amazing to me that so many people are still trying this nonsense.

So , it looks like both of your have wrapped things up and sent it on its merry

way..

Good thing there's lots of politics here to keep you busy....

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Have you seen my thread on...Race Lens fallacies.....?

They send out 4 races a week and I can certainly say ...the angles have very little substance..

Using the weekly angle email, which gives out but a few of thousands of various combinations, as an example to say Race Lens angles overall have have very little substance, is problematic.

Angles are designed to research theories.

Some theories have no value in terms of efficacy, but may have value in other ways, such as saving time and turning what used to be a time consuming proactive experience into a reactive one. An example might be to point out first time starters i turf route races where the sire or dam has had one or more first time out winners in similar races.

This angle absolutely has a negative ROI, but there are nuggets to be found among all the horses which match the angle.

No matter the angle having a positive ROI or a high win (or in the money) percentage in the past, EACH individual horse must be assessed to see if it fits the prior results for that angle.

I can assure you the Angles tool in Race Lens is highly regarded by a good number of handicappers, including many who played in the National Horseplayer's Championship. One of those final table participants, T J Sonde, is an active Race Lens user, as were many others I had great discussions with during the tournament, where I was 37th with a couple hours to go on race day before ending up 137th of 766, using Race Lens and some of the angles I had generated over the years, to help come up with a few of the horses I played .

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Using the weekly angle email, which gives out but a few of thousands of various combinations, as an example to say Race Lens angles overall have have very little substance, is problematic.

Angles are designed to research theories.

Some theories have no value in terms of efficacy, but may have value in other ways, such as saving time and turning what used to be a time consuming proactive experience into a reactive one. An example might be to point out first time starters i turf route races where the sire or dam has had one or more first time out winners in similar races.

This angle absolutely has a negative ROI, but there are nuggets to be found among all the horses which match the angle.

No matter the angle having a positive ROI or a high win (or in the money) percentage in the past, EACH individual horse must be assessed to see if it fits the prior results for that angle.

I can assure you the Angles tool in Race Lens is highly regarded by a good number of handicappers, including many who played in the National Horseplayer's Championship. One of those final table participants, T J Sonde, is an active Race Lens user, as were many others I had great discussions with during the tournament, where I was 37th with a couple hours to go on race day before ending up 137th of 766, using Race Lens and some of the angles I had generated over the years, to help come up with a few of the horses I played .

TJ Sonde is an active ValueCapper user also!

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

An example might be to point out first time starters i turf route races where the sire or dam has had one or more first time out winners in similar races.

This angle absolutely has a negative ROI, but there are nuggets to be found among all the horses which match the angle.

From 'Causal Inference and Discovery in Python' Aleksander Molak:

"Imagine you work at a research institute and you’re trying to understand the causes of people drowning.Your organization provides you with a huge database of socioeconomic variables. You decide to run a regression model over a large set of these variables to predict the number of drownings per day in your area of interest. When you check the results, it turns out that the biggest coefficient you obtained is for daily regional ice cream sales. Interesting! Ice cream usually contains large amounts of sugar, so maybe sugar affects people’s attention or physical performance while they are in the water.

This hypothesis might make sense, but before we move forward, let’s ask some questions. How about other variables that we did not include in the model? Did we add enough predictors to the model to describe all relevant aspects of the problem? What if we added too many of them? Could adding just one variable to the model completely change the outcome?"

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

From 'Causal Inference and Discovery in Python' Aleksander Molak:

"Imagine you work at a research institute and you’re trying to understand the causes of people drowning.Your organization provides you with a huge database of socioeconomic variables. You decide to run a regression model over a large set of these variables to predict the number of drownings per day in your area of interest. When you check the results, it turns out that the biggest coefficient you obtained is for daily regional ice cream sales. Interesting! Ice cream usually contains large amounts of sugar, so maybe sugar affects people’s attention or physical performance while they are in the water.

This hypothesis might make sense, but before we move forward, let’s ask some questions. How about other variables that we did not include in the model? Did we add enough predictors to the model to describe all relevant aspects of the problem? What if we added too many of them? Could adding just one variable to the model completely change the outcome?"

I suspect you'd sell more ice cream on the hottest of days and that more people would be at the beach swimming on the hottest of days. Most beach areas have one or two ice cream stands in proximity. I would say yes something is probably missing.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

Interested to see with the amount of Handicapping Angles i.e. Tom Ainslee and those created in terms Form Patterns. Software that calibrates these angles based on data (that I understand thus software programs are built to recognize the running lines and codes that have been designed to reflect the future probability of a victory for a horse in a race.

Thus, the development of Speed, Pace and Class, to Trip and a running line. My question is if you were not a coder and the old style of reading a past performance and the spidey senses give you that yes...from my past feelings that this horse has a chance. So this part is a joke, I have decided to hook up my brain ala EA games to my computer and simulate those thoughts into the past performances. I have spoken to people about inputting a score for each angle but forget it, there are way too many to put into a spreadsheet that may or may not give you a good estimate based on these principles that have been engraved into the game and then others continue to find there are more.

I took Ray Talbots old style scoring list as well as added some of my own factors or angles I have learned like Advanced Form Pattern Recognitions. etc.

The question or the combined question I have is "Does anyone have a scoring style that is accurate or should a past performance page via running lines be thrown out the window... Just curious, my created Time Card that I created, takes far too long when it comes to clicking through..like "a Stretchout, a Surface Switch, a Cutback, Trainer Switch, 1st Off the Claim.. you get my drift.. Just Curious because I am just about to throw this all out the window... and just go back to reading a past performance with a pen and my notepad..

P.S. particularly due to yesterday and tournament play.... In a 12 race tourney Pick and Pray.. I have 5 horses run... 3rd.... Is the game frustrating absolutely.. I am not gambling right now because I have no job but have enough to play 1 dollar tournaments and I usually hit at least top 5 once a month and there are great players out there but this is worse slop I have ever been...

I use as many angles as I can knowing that they are valid after visually testing for at least a year.I do not run the races through a database screening process because there are too nuances that may excuse the horse in the race. After determining which angles are valid I score for odds lines creation only. For the most part, I just look for which angles have fired and considering pace scenario, form, workouts and connections, decide which horses should be considered for betting. Ray Taulbot angle #26 is almost an automatic. I have over 1000 angles and for the most part 0 to 5 may fire for any horse. Most of my angles are composite angles made up of 2 or more factors. No, you cannot do this by pen and paper.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by equusvates

I use as many angles as I can knowing that they are valid after visually testing for at least a year.I do not run the races through a database screening process because there are too nuances that may excuse the horse in the race. After determining which angles are valid I score for odds lines creation only. For the most part, I just look for which angles have fired and considering pace scenario, form, workouts and connections, decide which horses should be considered for betting. Ray Taulbot angle #26 is almost an automatic. I have over 1000 angles and for the most part 0 to 5 may fire for any horse. Most of my angles are composite angles made up of 2 or more factors. No, you cannot do this by pen and paper.

What is Ray Talbot Angle #26?

[46zilzal]

Simple: hook best F1's to best SP's. that is the way the race will run often