Derby Race Shape

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I hate horses like Fierceness.

I don't know how good he is.

I have reason to believe all 3 of his wins were not quite as good as they look but his 2 losses were clearly not as bad as they look. That's a very fuzzy view of the innate ability of a horse. I way prefer it when I think I have a solid line on a horse and various upgrades and downgrades just make the entire picture clearer.

That’s funny because I love horses like Fierceness!
In fact, I’ve had a lot of success with potential gate-to-wire winners in the Derby. For me it all started going all the way back to Bold Forbes (who by the way beat the favorite, Honest Pleasure, and I don’t see an Honest Pleasure in this year’s Derby). Then a year later my all-time favorite, Seattle Slew does the same thing in stellar fashion even after going to its knees at the start. But even later, my biggest score in the Derby was cashing the Triple when War Emblem won in the same way after having cruised in the Illinois Derby with a 108 Beyer.

Yes, I agree you don’t know at this stage of its racing career how good it is, but you can say the same thing about every other 3 year old in the Derby. What you can assuredly say is that relative to the other horses in the field Fierceness stands out based upon its PROVEN ability when making the basic performance comparisons.

Also, keep in mind that having successfully run any 1-1/8th mile race from an outside post at GP is not an easy task. So, my thinking is that if JRV can control the pace and repeat the running of the FL Derby then it’s “say goodbye” to the other runners.

Another notable thing to consider is that from all off the Derby prep races run this year, I found that Fierceness was the only horse that accelerated for not only the first ¼ mile, but to the ½ mile as well (in the FL Derby). This has some significance to any of the other entries that decide to try and keep pace. Will they have enough energy left to sustain themselves in a mile and a ¼ race?

Of course, nothing is a lock in horse racing, but I believe Fierceness has a real advantage in this year’s Derby.
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[bisket]

Originally Posted by Nitro

That’s funny because I love horses like Fierceness!
In fact, I’ve had a lot of success with potential gate-to-wire winners in the Derby. For me it all started going all the way back to Bold Forbes (who by the way beat the favorite, Honest Pleasure, and I don’t see an Honest Pleasure in this year’s Derby). Then a year later my all-time favorite, Seattle Slew does the same thing in stellar fashion even after going to its knees at the start. But even later, my biggest score in the Derby was cashing the Triple when War Emblem won in the same way after having cruised in the Illinois Derby with a 108 Beyer.

Yes, I agree you don’t know at this stage of its racing career how good it is, but you can say the same thing about every other 3 year old in the Derby. What you can assuredly say is that relative to the other horses in the field Fierceness stands out based upon its PROVEN ability when making the basic performance comparisons.

Also, keep in mind that having successfully run any 1-1/8th mile race from an outside post at GP is not an easy task. So, my thinking is that if JRV can control the pace and repeat the running of the FL Derby then it’s “say goodbye” to the other runners.

Another notable thing to consider is that from all off the Derby prep races run this year, I found that Fierceness was the only horse that accelerated for not only the first ¼ mile, but to the ½ mile as well (in the FL Derby). This has some significance to any of the other entries that decide to try and keep pace. Will they have enough energy left to sustain themselves in a mile and a ¼ race?

Of course, nothing is a lock in horse racing, but I believe Fierceness has a real advantage in this year’s Derby.
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Encino gate to wire? Or maybe sitting 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and closing?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Yes, I agree you don’t know at this stage of its racing career how good it is, but you can say the same thing about every other 3 year old in the Derby. What you can assuredly say is that relative to the other horses in the field Fierceness stands out based upon its PROVEN ability when making the basic performance comparisons.

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I think you missed my major point.

Others may disagree, but i have reason to believe his 3 wins weren't as good as they look due to favorable conditions and his 2 losses are not as bad at they look due to trip/conditions. He doesn't have a race where I think I can get a solid line on what he's likely do on an honest track, with a solid pace, against Derby quality competition.

IMO, he might be worth 8/5 or he might be worth 8-1 but I'm not sure.

That's different than having a solid opinion on how good a horse is.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think you missed my major point.

Others may disagree, but i have reason to believe his 3 wins weren't as good as they look due to favorable conditions and his 2 losses are not as bad at they look due to trip/conditions. He doesn't have a race where I think I can get a solid line on what he's likely do on an honest track, with a solid pace, against Derby quality competition.

IMO, he might be worth 8/5 or he might be worth 8-1 but I'm not sure.

That's different than having a solid opinion on how good a horse is.

Why do you think his wins aren’t as impressive as most handicappers have graded them?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

Why do you think his wins aren’t as impressive as most handicappers have graded them?

His first start was on an off track that imo favored speed enough to think it could carry a good fast horse to a very good final time.

In the Florida Derby he was comfortably loose on the lead against one of the weaker major prep fields we’ve seen.

His Juvenile is the race most likely to be legit. However, I projected a lot of fast paces that day. The fractions for several of the races were very quick as I expected, but the races did not fall apart. They developed more or less honest. I suspect that even though it doesn’t look like it based on the charts, that track was carrying speed a bit. He stalked a moderate pace on the best part of the track (off the rail) and won in fast time. That was probably as good a trip as you were going to get on that track.

When a horse wins in fast time multiple times you know he’s good even if he got a few favorable trips. The question is how good. Given that he failed badly twice with tough trips I think it’s more of a question given he’s not going to have it easy in the Derby.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

His first start was on an off track that imo favored speed enough to think it could carry a good fast horse to a very good final time.

In the Florida Derby he was comfortably loose on the lead against one of the weaker major prep fields we’ve seen.

His Juvenile is the race most likely to be legit. However, I projected a lot of fast paces that day. The fractions for several of the races were very quick as I expected, but the races did not fall apart. They developed more or less honest. I suspect that even though it doesn’t look like it based on the charts, that track was carrying speed a bit. He stalked a moderate pace on the best part of the track (off the rail) and won in fast time. That was probably as good a trip as you were going to get on that track.

When a horse wins in fast time multiple times you know he’s good even if he got a few favorable trips. The question is how good. Given that he failed badly twice with tough trips I think it’s more of a question given he’s not going to have it easy in the Derby.

That's been my rub against him. He needs the Always Dreaming dream trip. Typical Pletcher Derby horse a cup cake reliant on getting a favorable race set up to win. We could say that about all the runners, but it's not reliant on "if someone touches me I'll fold" lol. I'll have to go back and look at the races leading to the Fla derby, but I remember thinking that figure wasn't necessarily on solid ground. I think there were more turf and poly track races this year than last.

[zico20]

The only two horses that can run with Fierceness early are Track Phantom and Dornoch. If neither goes hard for the lead it is difficult to envision Fierceness not having an easy lead if he breaks well. Just a Touch is not going to go in quick fractions just to duel Fierceness, but then again Cox sent Timberlake after Muth so there is always that hope for those betting against Fierceness.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

YouTube

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by zico20

The only two horses that can run with Fierceness early are Track Phantom and Dornoch. If neither goes hard for the lead it is difficult to envision Fierceness not having an easy lead if he breaks well. Just a Touch is not going to go in quick fractions just to duel Fierceness, but then again Cox sent Timberlake after Muth so there is always that hope for those betting against Fierceness.

Epic Ride can be quick. If he can get into the race I think Leone's chances go way up. It may seem silly to prefer a horse because of the presence of another horse but that's kind of how I see it shaping up.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

In his summary of trends, who does he think prepped in the Haskell?

" Four were in the Florida Derby, two in the Santa Anita Derby and one each in the Arkansas Derby and the Haskell."

Authentic - have we forgotten the 2020 September Derby?

[rastajenk]

Well, I guess I have....

That one deserves a big-ass assterisk next to it at all times.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Well, I guess I have....

That one deserves a big-ass assterisk next to it at all times.

May Derby 2020 would have been Tiz The Law in a romp, I believe. (And a possible corollary of a much smaller MyRacehorse presence on the national scene.)

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwG6...nnel=RodStewar

How about Strongholds great grandmom....

https://youtu.be/pTUAh4bQYKE?si=0LF-pGjyU_Wf_osS

[bisket]

Now that post positions have been drawn this is how I see the race. Dornach's connections say they're peddle to the meddle from the break. Track Phantom likes the lead and he adds blinkys so he should be even more aggressive. Just a Touch likes to be involved early so he might be up there. The Japanese runner TO Password has been on the lead in his races. I see them out in front with a moderately fast pace. There should be a pocket of space behind them for Johnny V to drop into from the outside on Fierceness. I got the apprentice on Encino so who knows where we're going to be, but hopefully he finds his way next to his target Fierceness. When it's time to start running Encino and Fierceness engage in the battle. Encino has shown he won't let anyone get in front and I hope that holds true, and I get 20 to 1 at the top of my exacta, tri, and super. Catching Freedom passes horse to fill out the tri while Just Steel takes a licking but keeps on ticking to fill out the super.

[JustRalph]

What if Dornach’s trainer is gas lighting?

No way I would actually give that away…..unless he really believes he can run them off their feet…….interesting question……it’s happen before