Quick Look at Final 1/8 and 3/8ths for Derby contenders.

[Onesome]

Even though he's probably too slow to survive the early battle, TO Password was an estimate 1:16 to the 3f-out pole, offically 103.9 4f-out in the Fukuryu S. For the UAE Derby I have about 1:21.3 to the 3f out pole in regards to forever young

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by hondo164

Here is a link to an article from Bloodhorse where they calculated the final 3/8s and 1/8. They projected for the 1/3/16 races, races at 1 1/16, and the 2 Japanese horses. May numbers were taken from Bris PPs and are similar and any differences don't change those qualifying for 13.0 @ last 1/8 and 38.0 @ last 3/8ths. However, I do question the projected times for Domestic Product,


https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...m_medium=email

I agree. DP's last race is suspect. It was run like a turf race but on dirt. It was also a blanket finish, so everyone else was doing the same thing. Has the "never ran 9F+ curse" been broken? And thanks for the article.

[rastajenk]

I took another look at the Bloodhorse link. Mystic Dan fits the criteria. Catching Freedom and Forever Young are two of the four 'strongest contenders.' Sierra Leone misses both metrics by .02 seconds.

And, well, there you are.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I took another look at the Bloodhorse link. Mystic Dan fits the criteria. Catching Freedom and Forever Young are two of the four 'strongest contenders.' Sierra Leone misses both metrics by .02 seconds.

And, well, there you are.

I was surprised Dan was so close early. I think it almost cost him the race. He was the only horse up front early, that lasted in the stretch. He was 7th or 8th, but he wasn't far from the pace. It definitely cost him late pace.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I took another look at the Bloodhorse link. Mystic Dan fits the criteria. Catching Freedom and Forever Young are two of the four 'strongest contenders.' Sierra Leone misses both metrics by .02 seconds.

And, well, there you are.

Mystike Dan would not qualify under the original rules because he lost too many lengths.

That being said, he really did run against it in the ARK derby.

[f2tornado]

That's the 6th year in a row that a horse beat in previous start came back to win the Derby. With how lightly raced most horses are these days, perhaps one does need to consider not getting stuck on a final prep formula or any other metric. One thing the trio in the photo had in common was posting Thoro-Graph figs what were amongst the best in the group. One just needed to go one more back on Mystik. In addition to the fraction theory, a Japanese horse damn near won the race, and a Goldencents sire did win the race, and with a whopping two dosage points.

Like a new car TV ad from the late 80s... "It's not your father's Oldsmobile."

I wouldn't throw all that stuff out the window but maybe take it with a grain of salt these days.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That's the 6th year in a row that a horse beat in previous start came back to win the Derby. With how lightly raced most horses are these days, perhaps one does need to consider not getting stuck on a final prep formula or any other metric. One thing the trio in the photo had in common was posting Thoro-Graph figs what were amongst the best in the group. One just needed to go one more back on Mystik. In addition to the fraction theory, a Japanese horse damn near won the race, and a Goldencents sire did win the race, and with a whopping two dosage points.

Like a new car TV ad from the late 80s... "It's not your father's Oldsmobile."

I wouldn't throw all that stuff out the window but maybe take it with a grain of salt these days.

Yep, the old days of the Kentucky Derby being somewhat established horses are long gone.

We are now seeing fields full of horses with 3, 4, and 5 races under their belt and trainer/connections simply looking to get in the gate and max out on Derby day.

The Japan horse T O Password had just 2 career starts, probably had the toughest trip of any horse, and finished 5th.

Undoubtedly a race where you need a horse with some fight, and the top 3 certainly brought some fight. While Mystik Dan did get a really nice rail trip, he still had to push through Track Phantom on the rail to get it done.

[Fightingirish51195]

I still think it’s very valuable but it’s misused by many in my opinion.

I think a qualitative approach along with it is important.mage last year a good example of that.