Rounding out the fave-hi-five: Catching Freedom & Just a Touch

[Aerocraft67]

Catching Freedom looks a little like Sierra Leone at a better price. That one pinched him back to third near the end of the stretch to prevail in the sloppy Risen Star. But he only spots one top Beyer point to his favored foe on a fast track.

He's won last-to-first, but tracks tight with the end of the pack—or even in the end of midpack. Neither of these closers are plodders.

He'd already run wide around the far turn, but Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby after Honor Marie pushed him to the middle of the track at the top of the stretch. He also came wide out of the turn to win the Smarty Jones after working out a trip.

Just a Touch deserves credit for running with the fast pace in the Blue Grass to hold second. In just his third career race. But Sierra Leone beat him soundly.

He also deserves some credit for keeping on in the sloppy/sealed Gotham. He was way wide in what had to be an exhausting mile. He tracked third and kept coming versus stubborn leaders to place.

Can Just a Touch blossom in his fourth race to win the roses? Or at least hang around for another piece, after tracking the pace up front, out of trouble?

I liked Mage last year because he accomplished more in fewer outings than most rivals, and old timers were betting against insufficient conditioning. I don't know yet whether Just a Touch has done as much, and repeating that pattern may get overbet this year.

You have an even mix of early and late runners in the top four, and a fifth lightly-raced wildcard in the forefront mix. You have to project speed improvement and favorable trip for any of them.

We'll see about the deeper contenders—whether they require way more creative projections, or more modest shortcomings than their odds suggest.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

I like both as legit contenders.

Reality of the Kentucky Derby nowadays is more about projection than almost anything else. While back in the 80s, 90s, 00's and even 10's projection was always a good part of picking Derby winners, it is ever more important now than ever. Horses are so lightly raced anymore, that I sadly look at the field nowadays that horses who have 6 career starts or more as a negative.

Sadly, I'm projecting horses with that 'much' seasoning under their belts as to how much can they improve compared to others? Kind of a crazy way to look at it, but it kind of is what it is now.

17 of the 20 current entries have 6 career starts or less. 11 of the 17 have 5 career starts or less. And we have 3 horses with 3 career starts or less including the Japan entry in T O Password with just 2 career starts.

Just Steel (10 starts), Track Phantom (7 starts), and West Saratoga (10 starts) need some serious improvement to contend in this year's Derby. How much can these horses actually progress with those many starts under their belt compared to others with so much more upside?

Many of the old Derby myths of "you can't win if..." have been busted in the 2020s. And they will continue to be busted as horses become more and more lightly raced coming into this event.

When does the day come that we have a first time starter in the Derby?

[rastajenk]

I wouldn't be stunned by either of these, but I'd probably be disappointed with my tickets' structures, the usual all over it, get nothing routine. May be best used as DD possibilities to keep the costs down.

Resilience is one in the next tier of longer shots that has me interested. He would have to shed the Wood curse; he fits the 3/8's metric. Solid connections.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I like both as legit contenders.

Reality of the Kentucky Derby nowadays is more about projection than almost anything else. While back in the 80s, 90s, 00's and even 10's projection was always a good part of picking Derby winners, it is ever more important now than ever. Horses are so lightly raced anymore, that I sadly look at the field nowadays that horses who have 6 career starts or more as a negative.

Sadly, I'm projecting horses with that 'much' seasoning under their belts as to how much can they improve compared to others? Kind of a crazy way to look at it, but it kind of is what it is now.

17 of the 20 current entries have 6 career starts or less. 11 of the 17 have 5 career starts or less. And we have 3 horses with 3 career starts or less including the Japan entry in T O Password with just 2 career starts.

Just Steel (10 starts), Track Phantom (7 starts), and West Saratoga (10 starts) need some serious improvement to contend in this year's Derby. How much can these horses actually progress with those many starts under their belt compared to others with so much more upside?

Many of the old Derby myths of "you can't win if..." have been busted in the 2020s. And they will continue to be busted as horses become more and more lightly raced coming into this event.

When does the day come that we have a first time starter in the Derby?

I disagree with you on Just Steel, his last race puts him right there for an exotic finish. The problem is like I mentioned before is that every time he runs a solid speed figure he follows it up with a sub par one. So hard to see him running back to back big numbers.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by zico20

I disagree with you on Just Steel, his last race puts him right there for an exotic finish. The problem is like I mentioned before is that every time he runs a solid speed figure he follows it up with a sub par one. So hard to see him running back to back big numbers.

Lukas mentioned in his interview before the race he leaned on Just Steel in his training coming into the Ark Derby. Steel moved forward. He has enough of a bottom with all the activity this winter to hold his fitness or move forward off the last race.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

I disagree with you on Just Steel, his last race puts him right there for an exotic finish. The problem is like I mentioned before is that every time he runs a solid speed figure he follows it up with a sub par one. So hard to see him running back to back big numbers.

Completely disagree.

His best career race to date is a well beaten 2nd in the Arkansas Derby in which half the field didn't even show up. He has a lot of ugly races on his resume and is 2 for 11 lifetime. He would need a lot of good things to happen for him to even clunk up into the Superfecta IMO.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by bisket

Lukas mentioned in his interview before the race he leaned on Just Steel in his training coming into the Ark Derby. Steel moved forward. He has enough of a bottom with all the activity this winter to hold his fitness or move forward off the last race.

I don't disagree but when is he going to run two big races in a row? Lukas loves to be in the Triple Crown races so we knew he was going to have Just Steel ready to run his best race in the Arkansas Derby.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by zico20

I don't disagree but when is he going to run two big races in a row? Lukas loves to be in the Triple Crown races so we knew he was going to have Just Steel ready to run his best race in the Arkansas Derby.

Steel runs evenly. A good horse to fill out verticals. That where I see him. Hopefully more bettors feel like Palace towards him and keep him off their tickets. He’s probably gonna need to run a 100 beyer to do that in the derby. I see it in his scope at this point.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Completely disagree.

His best career race to date is a well beaten 2nd in the Arkansas Derby in which half the field didn't even show up. He has a lot of ugly races on his resume and is 2 for 11 lifetime. He would need a lot of good things to happen for him to even clunk up into the Superfecta IMO.

I see where our disagreement comes from. You don't have a high opinion of Muth where I do. We will hopefully find out in the Preakness which one of us is right. Every prep race half the field doesn't show up. A horse losing by two lengths to one of the best three year olds is not well beaten in my view.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by bisket

Steel runs evenly. A good horse to fill out verticals. That where I see him. Hopefully more bettors feel like Palace towards him and keep him off their tickets. He’s probably gonna need to run a 100 beyer to do that in the derby. I see it in his scope at this point.

You won't need no 100 beyer to be in the super. That extra 1/8 of a mile crushes most horses.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

I see where our disagreement comes from. You don't have a high opinion of Muth where I do. We will hopefully find out in the Preakness which one of us is right. Every prep race half the field doesn't show up. A horse losing by two lengths to one of the best three year olds is not well beaten in my view.

You have me pegged.

I don't have much respect for much of anything from the West Coast this year. Nysos is by far the best horse in the Baffert barn, and he may well never race again.

Muth has ran some nice races, and will certainly be a factor in the Preakness, but still believe he is a notch below the best of this crop.

I could well be blinded by such a mediocre horse in Stronghold winning the Santa Anita Derby that it is clouding my sense of the West Coast horses, but you have to draw lines as to where you stand.

I do like that they have changed up Just Steel's running style. You get a Justify colt, and I can see wanting to put him to the front and just wear away his competition like his pops did. Well, they figured out that just wasn't him, so he has changed up and become a grinder.

Problem I see is he'll be sitting something like 8th to 12th early. He'll stay and get by faders on the front, but I also see him getting passed by the legit closers in this field and also get caught up in a lot of traffic while not finishing as strong as others. Have a hard time seeing him finishing in the top 8 to be honest.

Smaller fields in the summer, I can definitely see him being a bigger factor.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Resilience is one in the next tier of longer shots that has me interested. He would have to shed the Wood curse

The Wood is almost a default place to check for a contrarian play. Hit Show ran 5th last year. The New York public handicappers were on him. That said, he and Lord Miles haven't done much beyond that.

[Aerocraft67]

I kind of like Catching Freedom as a casual pick for someone that doesn't follow racing to bet across the board. Legit shot that'll be coming late with a better payoff than the favorites.