How Good is the Derby Winner?

[Bullet Plane]

The Kentucky Derby is the top race for three years olds. But how often is the winner actually the best 3 year old? I had to have some criteria, so I used the Three year old of the year to denote the best three year old.

Three year old Champion:

2023: Arcangelo - not the Derby winner

2022: Epicenter - not the Derby winner

2021: Essential Quality - not the Derby winner

2020: Authentic

2019: Maximum Security *

2018: Justify

2017 West Coast - not the Derby winner

2016 Arrogate - not the Derby winner

2015: American Pharoah

2014 California Chrome

2013: Will Take Charge - not the Derby winner

So, it looks like about 50% the last ten years that the Derby winner was actually the three year old of the year.

Where will Mystic Dan fit?

Hard to say, since this was the first three horse photo since 1947.

* Maximum Security was DQ'd. So, if you don't count that one; it's 40%.

[wiretowire68]

Narrow down to 5 of those horses were trained by the Silver Haired chemistry major.

[burnsy]

The race was not fast , he got the dream trip . Why do people think the best horse wins this race? It’s probably true like 1/3 of the time if that . It’s twenty horses , with bumping and horses forced wide . On the years the field is open …….. it’s about the trip , and some luck . Forget about if they were the best . Look at how many never win again or win one more . Since the DQ I’ve soured on this race plus you can’t really count on it to win anything . I strictly focus on the undercard . Which was awesome this year . The best if the best are running and people are carried away with the Derby . I had a great year betting this card but I lost the Derby and I wasn’t really thinking I’d win any way . It’s really a lot of fluff and hype for a race that’s wacky many years . The last two winners did Nada . Fun to talk about and follow but seriously handicap ….. cmon .

[five-eighths]

After Muth romps in the Preakness:

1.Muth
2.Sierra Leone
3.Forever Young
4.Fierceness
5.Mystik Dan

[bisket]

If Dan runs in the Preakness he has a shot in that race. I don’t see him winning at Saratoga even if he skips the Preakness. I feel he’s probably a better miler that can get the classic distance with some help. In my opinion a horse needs more bottom stamina wise to win at 1 1/4 mile at Saratoga. The tracks not as friendly to speed horses in general. The jock said he was going really comfortable the first mile in the derby. So his natural pace is really to fast for the classic distance. You try to make him go slower and it takes away his punch and you end up with an even runner… Forte among many other Pletcher runners would be a good example. I think the eventual 3 year old champ probably hasn’t come forward yet.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by burnsy

The race was not fast , he got the dream trip . Why do people think the best horse wins this race? It’s probably true like 1/3 of the time if that . It’s twenty horses , with bumping and horses forced wide . On the years the field is open …….. it’s about the trip , and some luck . Forget about if they were the best . Look at how many never win again or win one more . Since the DQ I’ve soured on this race plus you can’t really count on it to win anything . I strictly focus on the undercard . Which was awesome this year . The best if the best are running and people are carried away with the Derby . I had a great year betting this card but I lost the Derby and I wasn’t really thinking I’d win any way . It’s really a lot of fluff and hype for a race that’s wacky many years . The last two winners did Nada . Fun to talk about and follow but seriously handicap ….. cmon .

I couldn’t agree with you more, particularly about the Derby under-card.
The Derby winner certainly isn’t a picture of consistency, but then again other than Forever Young neither were the other entries. Beyond that, I’m personally surprised with the performance of Fierceness.

You’d think with all the rest between races that these horses get these days that not only should they be more consistent but a lot faster too. The racing game from that perspective has certainly diminished from former years.

[MJC922]

Checked my numbers just now, computer had it as a 5.5 which is exactly par, this kind of surprised me, I was expecting something like a full point slower than par. I give him credit, he showed up, even moved forward a full point off his other big win. The other thing is when the hole opened he took off and got good separation immediately even when that was a mile into the race. He's not the one number horse I poked fun at, he's a two number horse now. With that said I mean we all know this was a dream trip and he's now coming off a peak effort. I would be leaning against him.

Baffert is coming in with 8's and 9's it's just a matter of time before he moves forward. I don't want it to be at my expense either. I might skip the Preakness honestly.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by five-eighths

After Muth romps in the Preakness:

1.Muth
2.Sierra Leone
3.Forever Young
4.Fierceness
5.Mystik Dan

Yes Muth will romp in the Preakness but we have to wait and see if Nysos is going to run again this year. If he does then Baffert will have the top two three year olds.

[classhandicapper]

There were other good horses that saved ground and didn't run as well as he did. He was also reasonably close, moved early, and finished well enough in a race that fell apart. I think he's good, but he's nothing special. IMO, the two horses behind him are better.

I'm still wondering whether there was still some moisture in the track (underneath) even though it was labeled "fast".

[lamboguy]

i haven't heard anything about whether FOREVER YOUNG stayed in the US or went back to Japan..i have to think that horse will advance in a big way off the Derby race.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i haven't heard anything about whether FOREVER YOUNG stayed in the US or went back to Japan..i have to think that horse will advance in a big way off the Derby race.

If he runs in the Preakness or Belmont he would be my choice to win. I don’t think the Preakness is a race that I’ll wager on. The Belmont… maybe

[Hoops McCann]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i haven't heard anything about whether FOREVER YOUNG stayed in the US or went back to Japan..i have to think that horse will advance in a big way off the Derby race.

went back to Japan

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by bisket

If he runs in the Preakness or Belmont he would be my choice to win. I don’t think the Preakness is a race that I’ll wager on. The Belmont… maybe

Baffert horse gonna be under even money against a Ky. Derby winner