How Do You Spot An Edge ? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jamey1977 · 08-09-2010, 04:05 PM

I have gone through everything. Bet when you have an edge. Every handicapper says this. Well how do we know when we have an edge ? . Is it a race with 2 contenders and one goes to 3 to 5 and the other goes to 4 to 1 sort of like in The Blaine- Quality Road race.? Finding these types of betting for these races, takes forever. Might get off 7 plays in 2 weeks on 1 circuit. Or is the edge another matter.? How do we know when we have an edge? I am tired of putting money down and losing anyway. Everyone talks about an edge. How do we know ?

Robert Goren · 08-09-2010, 04:33 PM

I think have an edge when ever I think a horse has to fall down not to win and I am getting 2/1 or better. It is amazing how often they actually fall down or at least get blocked.

TEJAS KIDD · 08-09-2010, 06:48 PM

An edge is knowing something that the general public doesnt know.

For example.
A speed horse in a 6 horse field beats the gate, and the other 5 crash into each other leaving the gate. The speed horse goes wire to wire but barely holds on. Unless you watched the race, you wouldnt have known that. The general wagering public doesnt necessarily know what happened because all they'll see is the running line
1 1 1 1
The horse is worse than looked and will get overbet based on his prior performance.
Or a deep closer gets set up behind a 5 horse suicide duel. Today he's running in a paceless field.
General public wouldnt know how the race set up for him last time and his odds would be reflective of his most recent win.

CincyHorseplayer · 08-09-2010, 07:03 PM

The best edge is to use a betting strategy that has it's own built in edge.I only bet on horses to win at 2-1 or better.Because of that my average mutuel is 7/2 and has been for the most part since 2001.At a 30% clip you have better than a 40% ROI.The way I play exactas I get over a 60% ROI on a 25% hit rate.

That and pass races.Nothing turns your betting numbers around than not betting just to bet.

As far as actual in race edge,make your own betting lines.The edge will be staring you right in the face.

Trotman · 08-09-2010, 09:25 PM

jamey 1977 you mentioned about only getting off 7 plays in 2 weeks on 1 circuit, it sounds to me that you need more action than that and for me that's my type of play a very disiplined approach, but I do appreciate the action players because my prices get better

thaskalos · 08-09-2010, 11:14 PM

Edge = value, IMO. Your handicapping methods - whatever they may be - have to be able to put you on some horses that are not obvious to the wagering public. Many horses are WAY better than they look on paper.

Here is an example:

Speed horses that find themselves in races loaded with early speed, often finish way back at the wire...even though they might be 2nd or 3rd best in the race...especially if they have outside posts.

The "dynamics" of the race, can easily cause the second best horse to finish last, instead of second.

Put a couple of these badly tiring performances together, and this "quitting" speed horse can be completely ignored in a subsequent start.

But if this new race is devoid of early speed...our "badly tiring" horse can be as good a bet as a player can find in this game.

Look beyond the obvious...with your eye always on value.

JustRalph · 08-09-2010, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

The best edge is to use a betting strategy that has it's own built in edge.I only bet on horses to win at 2-1 or better.Because of that my average mutuel is 7/2 and has been for the most part since 2001.At a 30% clip you have better than a 40% ROI.The way I play exactas I get over a 60% ROI on a 25% hit rate.

you are my hero

BombsAway Bob · 08-09-2010, 11:17 PM

PP's are only 2/3rd's of the puzzle...
Trip & Track trends (Bias) are the hidden 1/3rd...
Mark Patterson @Mountaineer is doing the dirty work for us all here:
http://www.mtrracetrack.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=127:t rack-bias&catid=1:all-racing-news&Itemid=63
sample of his work...great info for the twice-a-week Mountain bettor

--------------
Fri, Jul 23 (fast) When up against the notorious dead-rail / dead -speed tag team, chalk players tap out quicker than Kimbo Slice. The reason is that they are selection oriented, and a course that punishes the kind of early acceleration and ground-saving trips that normally win races just isn't conducive to picking winners. Tonight's tickets reflected that truth as no (zero-zilch-nada) winner went favored, only two front-runners scored, and most winners swung wide.

Tues, Jul 20 (fast) Isn't it said that if you watch the last two minutes of an NBA contest, you've seen the whole game? Tonight's late double was like that, as the NJ Nets (a longshot) rallied around them in the feature, and the Lakers (a 6/5 chalk) wired the finale from the rail. Surface fair.

Mon, Jul 19 (fast) Off the turf tonight, but the mountain-main was fast. Five early-speed scores isn't all that unusual here, but when two of those are long odds and another almost 8-1, it's likely that front-runners had an edge. Two horses able to overcome the obvious bias raced close up and capitalized on speed-duels, and another sat patiently in second position while a breakaway leader exhausted herself and hit the wall.

Sun, Jul 18 (fast) Wow! What a difference from last night. No change in the weather, and, if anything, clockings were a tad quicker, but this evening, kickers ROCKED. And when closers weren't cleaning up, horses from several lengths back bid right around the speeds. As you would expect when fronts can't buy a win, the rail was a black hole and wide paths the fastest way to orbit the infield.

cosmo96 · 08-09-2010, 11:22 PM

Good solid handicapping, and a little luck is the edge.

Robert Goren · 08-09-2010, 11:50 PM

Sometimes I might find a 2 or 3 yo first or second time starter who very greenly but looks like he might have been the best horse in the race. They usually get their act togather the next time they run.

CincyHorseplayer · 08-10-2010, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

you are my hero

Well do you agree or disagree?I can't tell.It's pretty simple,the math is right there.What's your approach?

Canadian · 08-10-2010, 04:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

That and pass races.Nothing turns your betting numbers around than not betting just to bet.

My ultimate weakness. I don't know if I'll ever develope the disapline to do it. Oh how many times told myself I'm going to stay away from races.... only to find myself betting some dog track in god knows where.

xfile · 08-10-2010, 04:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Edge = value, IMO. Your handicapping methods - whatever they may be - have to be able to put you on some horses that are not obvious to the wagering public. Many horses are WAY better than they look on paper.

Here is an example:

Speed horses that find themselves in races loaded with early speed, often finish way back at the wire...even though they might be 2nd or 3rd best in the race...especially if they have outside posts.

The "dynamics" of the race, can easily cause the second best horse to finish last, instead of second.

Put a couple of these badly tiring performances together, and this "quitting" speed horse can be completely ignored in a subsequent start.

But if this new race is devoid of early speed...our "badly tiring" horse can be as good a bet as a player can find in this game.

Look beyond the obvious...with your eye always on value.

This post is 100% accurate and a proven way IMO

Overlay · 08-10-2010, 11:47 AM

In my experience, an edge does not necessarily have to consist of any one identifiable positive angle or factor. Instead, it can be a composite estimation of a horse’s winning chances, however derived (I prefer the use of performance statistics associated with a variety of fundamental handicapping factors), which the public then misjudges because of being too narrowly-focused.

For example, the public may assign too much importance to a single factor (such as a big figure or a hot jockey) that may be a positive indicator for the horse featuring it, but not to the extent that the public thinks. This leads to the relative bypassing of other horses in the race, none of which may be the one most likely winner, but which represent a better wagering proposition when comparing winning chances to odds than the horse(s) that the public is overbetting.

misscashalot · 08-10-2010, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Overlay

In my experience, an edge does not necessarily have to consist of any one identifiable positive angle or factor. Instead, it can be a composite estimation of a horse’s winning chances, however derived (I prefer the use of performance statistics associated with a variety of fundamental handicapping factors), which the public then misjudges because of being too narrowly-focused.

For example, the public may assign too much importance to a single factor (such as a big figure or a hot jockey) that may be a positive indicator for the horse featuring it, but not to the extent that the public thinks. This leads to the relative bypassing of other horses in the race, none of which may be the one most likely winner, but which represent a better wagering proposition when comparing winning chances to odds than the horse(s) that the public is overbetting.

Yes very well said...also that It's a moving target. The amount of movement is greater if you narrow your outlook. And is dependent largely on the win %.
A 30% win can go 8 or more times btwn wins. The higher the roi, the more patience you have. You need to know this so as not give up with initial dry period. It's subtle, and it's your comfort level.