Beyer predicts Chrome off the board - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Hoofless_Wonder · 06-05-2014, 01:35 PM

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-dispas...etting-belmont

I agree that Chrome has a chance to run out of the money.

I also agree with Beyer that if Chrome wins, he's a great one to overcome it all......

thaskalos · 06-05-2014, 01:55 PM

Who can argue with the man when he is making sense.

SecretAgentMan · 06-05-2014, 02:39 PM

I would love to see what Beyers tickets look like in the 3 triple crown races every year.........when was the last time he picked a winner in these big races?

LoL@ Chrome out of the money.......

ultracapper · 06-05-2014, 03:31 PM

He had Barbaro.

Valuist · 06-05-2014, 03:33 PM

Of course one knew there had to come the obligatory criticisms of Beyer. After all, the above posters have contributed more to the sport

Stillriledup · 06-05-2014, 03:34 PM

The key to successful betting is to be able to NOT "Feel silly" if you bet against the horse "everyone else" is betting and he or she wins. You have to "love your bet" in sickness and in health.

The key is to not drink the kool aid and realize this is a golden opportunity to beat a favorite who is essentially "forced" to race in this race, while the other runners are not.

ultracapper · 06-05-2014, 03:37 PM

The more I'm looking things over preliminarily, the more I keep coming back to California Chrome. A week ago I was pretty well sold on Wicked Strong, but, and I truly believe I am doing this, as I settle down and look at it more analytically and with an honest gambler's attitude, he comes back time after time. I believe he will pop one more time at the top of the stretch and separate from the field. Give him 4 lengths at the 3/16ths pole, and I have to have my money on him. I'm leaning more and more towards he is going to pull this off, and do it in style. I don't think there will be a doubt at the 1/16th pole. I think he beats a grinding Wicked Strong by 2 1/2.

dilanesp · 06-05-2014, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

The key to successful betting is to be able to NOT "Feel silly" if you bet against the horse "everyone else" is betting and he or she wins. You have to "love your bet" in sickness and in health.

The key is to not drink the kool aid and realize this is a golden opportunity to beat a favorite who is essentially "forced" to race in this race, while the other runners are not.

Exactly.

Mr G · 06-05-2014, 04:09 PM

Anything is possible.

CC has been on a roll but he's now in NY at a longer distance and in NY there is the late Lou Reed, Billy Joel and than there is Johnny V

SecretAgentMan · 06-05-2014, 04:16 PM

Beyer should offer 6-5 on Chrome backers on the win spot. He should book bets on drf

Beyer just loves the breeding of horses & since Chrome's breeding isn't up to par with what Beyer thinks should be, he thinks he won't hit the board.......

Redboard · 06-05-2014, 04:33 PM

Don't forget his east coast bias.

classhandicapper · 06-05-2014, 04:41 PM

Just a few notes:

1. Beyer figures at the Grade 1 Stakes level have been shrinking for the last 5-10 years. So any comparison between the horses of the past and those of the last 10 years on a figure basis should be taken with a grain of salt.

2. IMO the Derby pace was faster than people think. People are so used to the insanely fast meltdown paces we've had in the Derby on occasion, they are failing to recognize that the first 4 furlongs of the Derby were fast relative to that slow final time and negatively impacted by the wind. So I'd be hard pressed to think the difference between CA Chrome (who was relatively close to the pace) and some of the deeper closers was as narrow that day as it looks on paper. Most of the pace setters and pressers stopped fairly badly. I think CC's big figure jump into the Preakness helped verify that.

3. CC may have been running "slowly" in the stretch of the Derby, but it was against the wind again, after that faster than it looks pace, and he was eased late. I think the real question is whether can he relax into slower fractions in the Belmont and finish strongly or will he be drawn into the pace and be very vulnerable at the distance.

Do I think CC is up there with Secretariat, Slew, and Affirmed?

Of course not. I saw those horses too.

I also won't argue with anyone that wants to take a stand against him at 12F. I may decide to bet against myself by post time. But I think Beyer is underrating him as a horse now the same way he underrated his Derby.

IMO it's still way too early in CC's career to say he doesn't deserve to be a Triple Crown winner or anything along those lines. For all we know the best is yet come. In fact, if memory serves me correctly, some people (Beyer among them) were trashing Slew during his Triple Crown campaign, but he turned out to be an all time super great. So let's see before we start writing him off.

ronsmac · 06-05-2014, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

Of course one knew there had to come the obligatory criticisms of Beyer. After all, the above posters have contributed more to the sport

We disagree on the finals but agree 100% here. The man is a legend.

BlueChip@DRF · 06-05-2014, 05:06 PM

The Kiss of Death

thaskalos · 06-05-2014, 05:10 PM

I predicted here that California Chrome would finish out of the exacta...but Beyer proved that he is even more daring than I. I have also made the exact same argument against the horse in this race. His TC races have not been as visually impressive as most people think...and it's hard to fathom that the horse will appreciate the added distance.