American Pharoah wins the Belmont & Triple Crown!!

[NY BRED]

[QUOTE=zico20]One correction in your post. It was the 6th best time


Thanks for the correction, still charged since yesterday.

Do we agree this is the first Belmont winner to wire the field?



#12

[pandy]

[QUOTE=NY BRED]

Originally Posted by zico20

One correction in your post. It was the 6th best time


Thanks for the correction, still charged since yesterday.

Do we agree this is the first Belmont winner to wire the field?



#12

Affirmed, Secretariat and Seattle Slew all wired the field.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

AP can rate. He doesn't need the lead. Did you happen to watch the Kentucky Derby this year? They can't set a pace too fast for him because he doesn't need the lead.

You obviously have some issue with something other than the horse. Maybe you gave out an opinion about him earlier this year and just refuse to admit you're wrong? Maybe?

Nope, I was in the ICU and neurological unit for 54 days this spring with my mother who was hit by a car while standing in front of a store. I only left the hospital to attend to my aunt's funeral and wake.

I have nothing against AP. Didn't even see the Derby live.

I handicapped the Belmont (1 week before the Belmont) as if it's a 10 claimer at MNR on a monday and I am recapping it as if it's a 10 Claimer at MNR, with cold logic.

Sorry if that bothers people.

Congrats again to all AP followers.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I handicapped the Belmont (1 week before the Belmont) as if it's a 10 claimer at MNR on a monday and I am recapping it as if it's a 10 Claimer at MNR, with cold logic.

So, you imply that the same logic applies to a 10K CLM and a TC event?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Dahoss2002

Go back and watch video of all 3 triple crown races and go through all your scenarios of how he could be beat and watch how he progresses through the 3 races. Again, sometimes you have to believe what you see even if it is on TV.

You really believed he progressed in the Preaknesss? Beating up on a pig who had no speed (Mr.Z) and beating a suck up donkey by 5 (with a lifetime beyer top of 72)?

Please keep betting.

sorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not.

Most people on here, don't know me that well, except for Delta. I am a rare horseplayer in that I have NO EGO. I am not saying he wasn't impressive because I didn't pick him or etc etc. I am simply judging the horse as I judge all horses I watch in hundreds of thousands of replays.

He's a good horse that got fantastic trips/pace scenarios against other horses who didn't get the same benefit, which makes him look better than he is.

Am I saying he's a weak horse? Absolutely not. I am saying he is not to be touted as a Seattle Slew, a Secretariat, A Cigar, A Sunday Silence, A Silver Charm. He's not fellas.

If AP would've had the trip Smarty had in his Belmont, AP would not have lost by a length. He would've lost by many more.

How about we talk after AP finds his first race with a stressful trip?

[thaskalos]

I thought this horse would need an oxygen tank during the last quarter mile of the Belmont. Seeing that he was slowing down noticeably during the latter parts of his races, I was convinced that the Belmont stretch run would find him in "no-man's land". And I retained that feeling up until the horses made that final turn, and headed into the stretch. I expected this horse to make the pace, and I expected the pace to be slow; there are no "speed duels" in marathon races. And I expected him to hold a narrow lead during the race's early stages.

But instead of needing oxygen down the stretch, as I had predicted...American Pharoah grew wings...and flew into racing's immortality. I tore up my mutuel tickets, but did so with a smile on my face, and a lump in my throat...because more money I would surely get to see again...but I was unsure about ever seeing another horse like this again.

The Pharoah reminded me of why I first fell in love with this game...

PS...

Much respect for my friend DeltaLover...who had labeled this horse as "something special". I doubted both DL and the Pharoah...but no longer.

[horses4courses]

There will always be those who visit any one, or all,
of the seven wonders of the world then ask "is that it?"

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

So, you imply that the same logic applies to a 10K CLM and a TC event?

In many ways yes. Because handicapping with your heart leads to blinding a handicapper. Par pace is par pace, par time is par time, regardless of level. And in G1 races it is expected that jockeys and connections try harder, that wasn't the case in the Belmont. it was a boat race with no one and I mean no one trying to win except for AP.

It's as if I was watching the 5th at PENN yesterday. All jocks have their choreographed orders and they all carried them out to obey Stephanie.

To me, AP did nothing wrong in his 3 TC races. He did what he was supposed to do. He faced no adversity, not his fault. He didn't need to overcome anything, not his fault. My point is, he is no megastar until he sees something to overcome and does so.

Finally, I'm not talking about overcoming a bad stumble, a check etc. I'm talking subtly difficult tasks, like overcoming a stressful trip, being hooked by a real race horse (sorry but Firing line is not a G1 horse), overcoming a fast internal fraction against a foe who is trying to win.

Again, he won, he did what he was supposed to do. He deserves accolades but not to the extent where he's the greatest horse of all time.

Heck, he's not even the best 3 yo in the last decade. Smarty Jones was way better, Afleet Alex was miles better, Big Brown was way better.

He just happened to get what those 3 couldn't get. Cakewalk trips in all TC races.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Ysorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not.

I apologize to you for going off on you last night. I was on fire after spending the day at Belmont and cheering AP down the stretch along with 90,000 other people...that was pretty awesome.

However, I leave you with this:

2:26.65

24.06
24.77
24.58
24.58
24.34
24.32

You must be pretty jaded to not be impressed by that. If I had posted that final time before the race, along with those internal fractions, and predicted that would be AP's numbers in the Belmont Stakes, there wouldn't be enough LOL emoticons in the world left for you to complete your reply to me. You and everyone else would have laughed me off this board.

Yet that's the race he ran, and you remain unimpressed. I guess there's nothing else to say.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I thought this horse would need an oxygen tank during the last quarter mile of the Belmont. Seeing that he was slowing down noticeably during the latter parts of his races, I was convinced that the Belmont stretch run would find him in "no-man's land". And I retained that feeling up until the horses made that final turn, and headed into the stretch. I expected this horse to make the pace, and I expected the pace to be slow; there are no "speed duels" in marathon races. And I expected him to hold a narrow lead during the race's early stages.

But instead of needing oxygen down the stretch, as I had predicted...American Pharoah grew wings...and flew into racing's immortality. I tore up my mutuel tickets, but did so with a smile on my face, and a lump in my throat...because more money I would surely get to see again...but I was unsure about ever seeing another horse like this again.

The Pharoah reminded me of why I first fell in love with this game...

PS...

Much respect for my friend DeltaLover...who had labeled this horse as "something special". I doubted both DL and the Pharoah...but no longer.

Let me start by saying, yes, if AP wins, I want and expect everyone on here to bash me, criticize me and I will eat all the crow for a week. Unlike others, I man up when I'm wrong. I deserve it all

Not to redboard but I said it before the Belmont, so it's not an excuse. His only chance was to walk unpressured through 1M of soft fractions and then he could finish and win. This was evidenced by his OP race where he crawled through 3/4's in 115 and change and sprinted home in 24.

Sorry but that OP race didn't impress me and this Belmont did not impress me. Any horse can be given that lead, with no pressure and sprint home, even at 1 1/2 miles.

Hate to be the villain here but facts are facts.

Nice horse, yes. Ultra champion of the century? HA Absolutely not.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You eat your crow in silence.

Thank you. I've never had a problem eating crow. Not here, or anywhere else.

AP was mind blowing....and I've never clapped and screamed so hard or so loudly. It was incredible to be a part of this historical Triple Crown win. A special day in New York City for all fans.

NYRA did an absolutely outstanding job with crowds, with traffic, not even to mention, with the racing card and, too, Andy Serling & Co.'s analysis throughout the day. Thank you all for a memorable day at the track.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Much respect for my friend DeltaLover...who had labeled this horse as "something special". I doubted both DL and the Pharoah...but no longer.

During the last 20 years, I have bet thousand of dollars always AGAINST a possible TC winner. As I have told you before, in Big Brown's Belmont, I made a HUGE bet against him, as I was convinced he had no shot to even hit the board.. By no means I am the handicapper who is easily convinced about the greatness of a specific horse...

When I saw AP finishing in the Preakness, I immediately felt, that this horse is something special and I was sure that he was going to win the Triple Crown was.. This feeling overshadowed my satisfaction of my long-shot in the race Tale of Verve, coming second, something that accounted to a minor payout for me (I had the $124 paying exacta for $27).. Honestly, I can not recall this kind of an impression ever happening to me before..

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

You really believed he progressed in the Preaknesss? Beating up on a pig who had no speed (Mr.Z) and beating a suck up donkey by 5 (with a lifetime beyer top of 72)?

Please keep betting.

sorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not.

Most people on here, don't know me that well, except for Delta. I am a rare horseplayer in that I have NO EGO. I am not saying he wasn't impressive because I didn't pick him or etc etc. I am simply judging the horse as I judge all horses I watch in hundreds of thousands of replays.

He's a good horse that got fantastic trips/pace scenarios against other horses who didn't get the same benefit, which makes him look better than he is.

Am I saying he's a weak horse? Absolutely not. I am saying he is not to be touted as a Seattle Slew, a Secretariat, A Cigar, A Sunday Silence, A Silver Charm. He's not fellas.

If AP would've had the trip Smarty had in his Belmont, AP would not have lost by a length. He would've lost by many more.

How about we talk after AP finds his first race with a stressful trip?

I think you are missing something very subtle about his trip yesterday. At first glance it looks he was on a loose lead getting an easy trip. But that's not what actually happened.

Materiality TRIED to make a run at him on the back but AP scooted away and put him away.

Then Mubtaahij TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and put him away.

Then Frosted TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and drew off.

I was at the Seattle Slew/Affirmed race. I'm not trying to compare the horses. But that race was illustrative of the point I am trying to make.

After it was over the Seattle Slew haters were out in force saying that Slew had a loose lead and huge tactical advantage. But that's not what Steve Cauthen said after the race. To paraphrase. "Every time I went after him, he had another gear I didn't have. I couldn't get to him". Slew went on to show what he was made of in the Gold Cup.

Sometimes horses are loose not because the other horses aren't trying to pressure the leader. It's because every time they try to get to him he scoots away effortlessly because he so much better than them.

That's what happened yesterday. Those was very good horses TRYING to put pressure on him but he swatted them away like gnats before they could even get to him. They tired off and he kept running....fast.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I apologize to you for going off on you last night. I was on fire after spending the day at Belmont and cheering AP down the stretch along with 90,000 other people...that was pretty awesome.

However, I leave you with this:

2:26.65

24.06
24.77
24.58
24.58
24.34
24.32

You must be pretty jaded to not be impressed by that. If I had posted that final time before the race, along with those internal fractions, and predicted that would be AP's numbers in the Belmont Stakes, there wouldn't be enough LOL emoticons in the world left for you to complete your reply to me. You and everyone else would have laughed me off this board.

Yet that's the race he ran, and you remain unimpressed. I guess there's nothing else to say.

Hey PA. No need to apologize pal. I have it ALLLLL coming to me and I am here ready to take it from everyone my friend.

Those fractions are not that impressive to me.

Why?

1)Look at race 6. Coach Inge does not strike you as a monster does he? Wicked Strong isn't in top form is he?

2) The track played real fast yesterday. Regardless of the Met result, it played towards speed and it carried fast.

3) He ran those fractions unpressured, galloping the whole way. I am not of the school of if a horse was asked he would go faster. If left unpressured, while in a comfortable gallop, horses run their peak races.

But yet again, I'll say it. He ran the race of his life, in OPTIMAL circumstances. He wasn't asked to overcome anything, that's not his fault. Good for AP. Good for racing, good for all rooters of AP. I am happy for him.

I'll set up my next ass kicking now, I can't wait for his next run. I hope he finds a field who will try and win and I can't wait to see if there is a play against him.

If his next race is against foes who I don't like, I won't pick against him but if there's a play (other speeds in the race, good field, unique scenario I like etc.) you will hear from me again !!! LOL

Congrats again

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think you are missing something about his trip yesterday. At first glance it looks he was on a loose lead getting an easy trip. But that's not what actually happened.

Materiality TRIED to make a run at him on the back but AP scooted away and put him away.

Then Mubtaahij TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and put him away.

Then Frosted TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and drew off.

I was at the Seattle Slew/Affirmed race. I'm not trying to compare the horses. But that race was illustrative of the point I am trying to make.

After it was over the Seattle Slew haters were out in force saying that Slew had a loose lead an huge tactical advantage. But that's not what Steve Cauthen said after the race. To paraphrase. "Every time I went after him, he had another gear I didn't have. I couldn't get to him". Slew went on to show what he was made of in the Gold Cup.

Sometimes horses are loose not because the other horses are slow, weak, and not trying to pressure the leader. It's because every time they try to get to him he scoots away effortlessly because he so much better than them.

That's what happened yesterday. Those was very good horses TRYING to put pressure on him but he swatted them away like gnats.

I respect this point a lot. No rebuttal to it except for this:

Materiality should've been sent hell bent to the lead early. Don't tell me if JV hustled or just simply encouraged his mount at all in the opening stages that Materiality couldn't keep up with AP in a joke of a first quarter of 24.06.

It was this first quarter, with a length advantage that set up the inability for anyone to pressure him thereafter.

Your point is excellent though and it was the case as they were running down the backstretch and far turn. I respect that. They could not get near him but again that was because of JV and his no go early.

we've seen it happen with lone speeds many times. in 10 claimers, stakes, alw races. Steal the opening quarter and the race is yours if the talent levels are similar. No matter how much the equal horse tries to catch up in the second/third quarter, they can't as the leader has the same energy reserves and a head start. Simple pace handicapping.