Can you fade Fierceness?

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's the thing with him.

He had tough trips and suspect conditions in his bad races, but even if you semi excuse those races due to trouble, track conditions, being short a layoff etc... imo a really TOP CLASS horse would have run through those trips and perhaps lost, but looked better than he did.

Then you look at his really fast races and they are absolutely dominant over the rest of the field, but he had easy trips in those races. He was either on a speed favoring track, loose against a very weak field, stalking a soft pace on the best part of the track etc..

So a good case can be made he's better than he looks in the bad races but not quite as good as looks in the good ones.

Maybe that still makes him the most likely winner, but he's not someone I'd be anxious to bet as the favorite. At the same time, I'm not particularly anxious to totally toss him out of everything either.

I don't know about his other 'bad' race but his Holy Bull is not a particularly negative race IF you don't look at it from a 'numbers' perspective. It's actually very good. Hades is nothing but he definitely had something on that particular day. (What's interesting out of that race is the suckup effort of Domestic Product and all the hype presently directed towards him.)

Fierceless is definitely the one to beat. But, IMO, it'll be harder for him to win the Derby than it will be for Sierra Leone.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

If you run a Monte Carlo simulation 1000 times, every horse will hit the board because pace and traffic will vary. Just because Fierceness runs them off their feet more often than he gets out closed in the simulation, doesn't mean that's what will happen this Saturday. I continue to maintain that the biggest part of the problem is that 20 horses is 4 too many to consider it a fair contest.

I wonder if you'd be willing to share what factor(s) you're simulating on.

No experience whatsoever with MC.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

I don't know about his other 'bad' race but his Holy Bull is not a particularly negative race IF you don't look at it from a 'numbers' perspective. It's actually very good. Hades is nothing but he definitely had something on that particular day. (What's interesting out of that race is the suckup effort of Domestic Product and all the hype presently directed towards him.)

Fierceless is definitely the one to beat. But, IMO, it'll be harder for him to win the Derby than it will be for Sierra Leone.

My feeling on the Holy Bull was that there was a ton of bumping at the start (including Fierceness). Hades was one of the only horses to escape it. He inherited the lead from the inside in the slow pace that resulted from all the bumping and wired. I tossed him next out and he ran poorly.

I have mixed feelings about Fierceness's race there. He certainly had the worst of it trip wise, but since I felt at the time that was not an especially good field, it's hard to love his performance even though it's better than it looks on paper.

I like Sierra Leone. I played him the last two times out and think he's a strong contender in the Derby, especially because I suspect the pace is more likely to be fast than average. As a general rule I'm not a big fan of very deep closers. So I'm not sure sure what price I need for a win bet. I probably won't get it, but he'll be in my exactas and triples. I'm still looking at the race. I'll comment more as we get closer.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by bisket

Fierceness has this cloud hanging over him.. I explained to the lady of the house the bad ju ju this poor colt was up against breaking from the 17 post. Then Encino was scratched and the sun came out. Then last night we find out Andy Beyer picked Fierceness to win the derby. So I talked to her about voodoo behind Beyer picking a horse to win the derby. I suggested that maybe we could sacrifice a chicken for Fierceness to overcome all the bad ju ju surrounding him again. She said by no means we’re killing a chicken so a horse can win the derby, but she could make roasted chicken for dinner Saturday. So anyone who feels Fierceness is the undeniable choice Saturday can feel good at the windows. Plus I scored a chicken dinner.

Well they didn't sacrifice a live chicken in Major League and you saw how that turned out.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by zico20

Well they didn't sacrifice a live chicken in Major League and you saw how that turned out.

Sometimes you have to go with what you got

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by zico20

Well they didn't sacrifice a live chicken in Major League and you saw how that turned out.

That was Bull Durham...

[zico20]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

That was Bull Durham...

So both movies had talk about a live chicken because Major League sure did. Cerrano had struck out three times in a row and Wesley Snipes character was standing at the top of the dugout and said, "should have got a live chicken."

[Parkview_Pirate]

Oh sure. Because, of this logic:

1. Great horses often win the Derby, and Great horses don't run clunkers.

This may not be as true as it used to be, but short of a jockey falling off or the horse falling down, great horses tend to be near the finish. "An off track" or "he wasn't cranked up" may be valid excuses for not winning, but...if we're talking greatness, you're still close at the end of the race.

2. Fierceness comes out on top with number analysis, but I still believe he only has about a 25% chance of winning - making him a significant underlay. Now if he goes off at 2-1 and wins by 10 lengths, he'll of course be a huge OVERLAY, but that's why we bet. Or invest, as the case may be.

3. One other knock on him - he's not as attractive in terms of his breeding compared to others in the race. Breeding is also a factor which doesn't seem as strong recently, but...it's still a factor.

So, I'll have some saver plays with him on top, but I'm looking elsewhere to cash in the race.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by zico20

So both movies had talk about a live chicken because Major League sure did. Cerrano had struck out three times in a row and Wesley Snipes character was standing at the top of the dugout and said, "should have got a live chicken."

YouTube

[bisket]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4sFlO89o1Q

voodoo runs deep in baseball and horse racing lol. I don't want to hear how Beyer got off the snide with Medina Spirit... lol we all know how that turned out

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Oh sure. Because, of this logic:

1. Great horses
2. he only has about a 25% chance of winning - making him a significant underlay.
3. he's not as attractive in terms of his breeding compared to others in the race. Breeding is also a factor which doesn't seem as strong recently, but...it's still a factor.

So, I'll have some saver plays with him on top, but I'm looking elsewhere to cash in the race.

That last point may be the sneaky knock against him, even with due caveats. I'm not hearing much about pedigree.

Fierceness has the lowest Tomlinson rating in the field for the distance—by a substantial margin. His TFUS pedigree score matches the lowest. He has a middling BRIS rating for the distance.

His overall superiority may override any shortcomings for distance propensity. But his true greatness is also in question.

Even with questionable predictive merits of pedigree factors, I don't want to absorb the poorest prospects at the highest price.

Fierceness had been 2-1 for a while, but just popped up to 5-2 with more than $1.37 million in the win pool. I'm comfortable with meaningful plays against him below 3-1. It would take more like 9-2 for me to focus on him. I'd go heavier on savers in between.

The high price is increasing my resolve. It increases his risk and makes other picks more attractive. Even the second favorite looks like an overlay at 5-1.

[classhandicapper]

Anyone remember the days when Todd Pletcher used to get occasional monster efforts at GP that weren't duplicated later at other tracks?

Dreaming of Julia was the most obvious ones.

Anyone considering the possibility that Fierceness's Florida Derby may be one of those freak Pletcher efforts at GP that won't be duplicated?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Anyone remember the days when Todd Pletcher used to get occasional monster efforts at GP that weren't duplicated later at other tracks?

Dreaming of Julia was the most obvious ones.

Anyone considering the possibility that Fierceness's Florida Derby may be one of those freak Pletcher efforts at GP that won't be duplicated?

Looking to fade Pletcher this entire weekend.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Anyone remember the days when Todd Pletcher used to get occasional monster efforts at GP that weren't duplicated later at other tracks?

Dreaming of Julia was the most obvious ones.

Anyone considering the possibility that Fierceness's Florida Derby may be one of those freak Pletcher efforts at GP that won't be duplicated?

Chicken dinner gets the ju ju on Pletchers side.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

....Fierceness has the lowest Tomlinson rating in the field for the distance—by a substantial margin. His TFUS pedigree score matches the lowest. He has a middling BRIS rating for the distance.

From the mid 1980s to about the mid 1990s, this would have made Fierceness an automatic toss for me. I was sold on breeding being a primary factor of determining the Derby winner. Surprisingly, the dosage angle seemed to peak with Strike the Gold who was being criticized on his breeding, in spite of being by Alydar.

Now I know that standing by absolutes in this game is deadly.

When reviewing info for the Derby, looking at an expanded breeding chart for "Big Names" was very important. I only see Empire Maker on the dam side for Fierceness, but plenty of speedy mules throughout the rest of his chart.

With a couple of G1 romps, it's probably too early to call him great, but Fierceness has plenty of talent. By 7 PM EDT or so later today, maybe he'll have earned the "great" label.