Ray Taulbot Selections

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by equusvates

WPS payoffs are not corrected to disqualifications.

Stuck on winner: bang:

[equusvates]

WAPOH, won at price or higher, was only showing attempts. Meaningless.


So now: WAPOH:w/p/s/a

w - won
p - placed
s - show
a - attempts


Only shown when stepping up in claiming price.


Doc Holiday: "now we can be friends".

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by equusvates

WPS payoffs are not corrected to disqualifications.

Getting there

[Saratoga]

Ok....now we have issues

quality control needs to be stepped up....

Lets look at Churchill Downs 6TH Race....5/11

Race Description is correct....
Race results are correct....


Pace Scenario..#6 is NOT a front runner...

The 4 and 2 should show as the Early horses...

There are many races like this that doesn't make sense...


#6 is 10-1 Morning Line......not shown

looks like you have off odds and then program calculated odds...

Need to see all 3 WITH Labeling to not confuse people

stop for now....

[Saratoga]

Note:

Please don't think I am "attacking" you....

I am just helping things along.....

for this to be the best it can be....I see lots of promise in this

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Note:

Please don't think I am "attacking" you....

I am just helping things along.....

for this to be the best it can be....I see lots of promise in this

No harm, no foul.
Will take a look. Without looking yet, the same routine is used to calculate every running style for every race. The technique is taken from the book "The Power of Early Speed" by Steve Klein. Maybe I have to read it again.: coffee:

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Ok....now we have issues

quality control needs to be stepped up....

Lets look at Churchill Downs 6TH Race....5/11

Race Description is correct....
Race results are correct....


Pace Scenario..#6 is NOT a front runner...

The 4 and 2 should show as the Early horses...

There are many races like this that doesn't make sense...


#6 is 10-1 Morning Line......not shown

looks like you have off odds and then program calculated odds...

Need to see all 3 WITH Labeling to not confuse people

stop for now....

In CD R6 H6, is drawn in the color cyan which denotes the horse as a presser.
I am not sure if you are looking at the race before or after scr's. Should not make a difference most of the time when only one horse is scr'ed. In anycase , the color definitions are:

LIME: need to lead (special kind of front runner, if many, meltdown race)
GREEN: front runners
CYAN: pressers
YELLOW: stalker, big closers
GOLD: stalker, small closers
DARK YELLOW, stalker (merry go around horses, always needs a hot pace)
DARK MAGENTA: trailer, big closers
LIGHT MAGENTA: trailer, small closers
RED, trailer (merry go around horses, always needs a hot pace)

The difference between a "BIG" and "SMALL" closer is, the small closers are typically slightly closer than the big closers. This being so, the small closers will get in the money more often than the big closers.

As the names implies, stalkers are expected to be closer to the pace than trailers.

All that being said, you never know how the horse feels, bad breaks, jockey decisions, trainer decisions and races where the trainer may have two or more horses. Somebody will be a rabbit.

The "PACE SCENARIO" colors are:
GREEN: early horses should be preferred
CYAN: race does not benefit early or late horses
MAGENTA: late horses should be preferred
RED: expected meltdown race

As always, these are projections. Will still take a look at the program but that portion of the program was written many years ago and now, I may not understand it without slowly going through it.

[equusvates]

Last scr update

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by equusvates

In CD R6 H6, is drawn in the color cyan which denotes the horse as a presser.
I am not sure if you are looking at the race before or after scr's. Should not make a difference most of the time when only one horse is scr'ed. In anycase , the color definitions are:

LIME: need to lead (special kind of front runner, if many, meltdown race)
GREEN: front runners
CYAN: pressers
YELLOW: stalker, big closers
GOLD: stalker, small closers
DARK YELLOW, stalker (merry go around horses, always needs a hot pace)
DARK MAGENTA: trailer, big closers
LIGHT MAGENTA: trailer, small closers
RED, trailer (merry go around horses, always needs a hot pace)

The difference between a "BIG" and "SMALL" closer is, the small closers are typically slightly closer than the big closers. This being so, the small closers will get in the money more often than the big closers.

As the names implies, stalkers are expected to be closer to the pace than trailers.

All that being said, you never know how the horse feels, bad breaks, jockey decisions, trainer decisions and races where the trainer may have two or more horses. Somebody will be a rabbit.

The "PACE SCENARIO" colors are:
GREEN: early horses should be preferred
CYAN: race does not benefit early or late horses
MAGENTA: late horses should be preferred
RED: expected meltdown race

As always, these are projections. Will still take a look at the program but that portion of the program was written many years ago and now, I may not understand it without slowly going through it.

If the horse saddle cloth number is printed in white, the program lacks information to calculate the horse's running style. This may be because of foreign horse or DNF or non-standard distance. Gray numbers are first time starters.

[equusvates]

Viggo tells his son, “John is a man of focus, commitment, sheer will... something you know very little about. I once saw him handicap three races in a bar...with a pencil.

[equusvates]

It may not be clear to all how the layoff and workouts are shown.

These are the requirements for layoffs are:
1) If a layoff is more than 59 days.


These are the requirements for displaying the number of workouts:
1) Workout of 4 or more in the last 45 days between today and last race.
2) Workout of 3 in the last 45 days between today and last race.
3) Workout of 2 in the last 30 days between today and last race.


These are the requirements for displaying the workouts quality:
1) Workout quality of 3.0 or more.


The goal of these requirements is to get a feel for trainer's intent.



Also, when I see a stalker or trailer my first question is can the horse catch 'em. This is more questionable in a dash or flash. I define a flash as any race less than 4.5 furlongs.


Remember to try to imagine how the race will be run. The PACE SCENARIO attempts to show you what to expect and the racing form should show you the apparent condition and form of the horse.


Lastly, I do not calculate pace numbers for 4.5 furlongs or anything shorter. May do so in the future but early speed dominates those races.

[equusvates]

Horses that fit these angles are very rare. I'll let Dan Sara explain the angles to. I have met and listen to his presentations at Michael Pizzolla's seminar, of which I attended four.

When angles are clearly in the public domain, I try to give my source. I have some that are not in the public domain and are part of Michael Pizzolla's Black Magic and Valuecapper. In his rants he speaks to them but does not explain how to calculate them. I use them in my rules engine to calculate the program odds. He explains some of the angles in his videos that are direct recordings from the seminars.

I give attributions when I can.

YouTube