R9 Saratoga G1 Personal Ensign 8/24/19

[Lemon Drop Husker]

On a major card full of big purses and other major races, this is a bit more of an open race than most likely want to believe. With other very likely singles strewn throughout the card, and the Chad Brown Stakes in the 8th, this race sits in a spot for the late P4 that could rattle some cages.

Midnight Bisou: Simply put, the one to beat. She is rocking and rolling coming in off 5 straight wins and is undefeated in 2019. THE Filly & Mare divisional leader looking to be the favorite in this years BC Distaff. The one to beat.

Coach Rocks: Took a major swing at Midnight Bisou last out only to get caught late in which MB got a bad trip and still got it done. The extra 1/16th likely won't be kind to her today. Gotta look elsewhere.

She's a Julie: Solid filly that has been handled in her last couple by other peers in here. Really want to make a case for her, but there are simply others that look better in a short field.

Elate: This is the other gal that is supposed to clash with Midnight in a premier showdown. Midnight has gotten the best of her previously. Can she turn the tables with outside position this time around?

Wow Cat: Yes, Jose is getting on Elate and Johnny V takes over on this mount. However, this is the only horse in the field that has beat Midnight Bisou in the last 12 months, and in the most important Filly & Mare race on the calendar. Connections are obviously pointing towards a BC run as this will be her 2nd race of the year, and 2nd on this very strip. Beaten last out by Golden Award, but likely wasn't fully cranked for that one. Very interesting Chad Brown entry.

Golden Award: 4YO is really in her prime to set a new career best high fig number. The real question is if it will be good enough in this field? Should go off at the biggest price of her career, and could be ready to take on the best of the very best in her division on a track she does enjoy. Upset special?


SUMMARY: Easy to see this as a Midnight Bisou/Elate slugfest; and that very well may happen. However, I just don't see it as being that easy. While it is a short field, this field is loaded with serious horses.



W:
EX: Box

[RunForTheRoses]

I think that is a prescient analysis in that MB and Elate are vulnerable even though the ML does not imply that. I think MB is the one to beat, awesome horse but at the price (and in a contest) I used I think Asmussen's other, can get in the exotics at a price (if the track is real speed favoring and/or gets an easy lead could win).

For some reason Mott is listed as a cold trainer in tfus overall and at Saratoga. I think a lot of trainers wish they were that cold, he seems to be doing fine. Not sure how that is calculated, maybe I'll ask in other thread.

[RunForTheRoses]

One thing, did not look so good at MTH, looked all out and the time wasn't that great. Has this been addressed anywhere? Longer I look, could turn tables, she looked real good at Delaware, time was fast, and the two losses at Oaklawn could partly be because of the ship/like of track.

<Edit> that was that hot day when MTH postponed the races

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ersonal-ensign

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

One thing, did not look so good at MTH, looked all out and the time wasn't that great. Has this been addressed anywhere? Longer I look, could turn tables, she looked real good at Delaware, time was fast, and the two losses at Oaklawn could partly be because of the ship/like of track.

<Edit> that was that hot day when MTH postponed the races

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ersonal-ensign

Your first question, yes. In my post I said Coach Rocks kind of put her to the hilt, but MB won with a bad trip and needed a bit of an all out effort to beat Coach. For me, I think it was more trip for MB than Coach Rocks putting it to her, but yes, the taxing of the campaign for MB is very much into my consideration here.



As for Elate, I think she is a tad overrated to be honest. Her numbers simply don't add up and even her career best number is bested or equaled by 4 others in here. As a 5YO, does she have more upside for a career best figure which it will likely take to win today?



I didn't post a preview to a 6 horse race on Traver's Day for shits and giggles.

[Immortal6]

LDH I’m with you on the she seems primed to pop a new career top. I’m fading the Asmussen horses and think coach rocks will be up against it. Elate seems to be in good form and wow cat will make a strong move off the pace.

win
/ ex and tri

[jimmyb]

exacta


wp

[AMPHAR]

This is the way I have it:

A:
B:
C:
D:
E:

w

Then play A,B,C in pick 3s

[Afleet]

Can't get past the fact Elate crushed Wow Cat at the distance@Saratoga. Played both chalks in the pick 4

[cj]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

I think that is a prescient analysis in that MB and Elate are vulnerable even though the ML does not imply that. I think MB is the one to beat, awesome horse but at the price (and in a contest) I used I think Asmussen's other, can get in the exotics at a price (if the track is real speed favoring and/or gets an easy lead could win).

For some reason Mott is listed as a cold trainer in tfus overall and at Saratoga. I think a lot of trainers wish they were that cold, he seems to be doing fine. Not sure how that is calculated, maybe I'll ask in other thread.

He's 1 for his last 37, 2 for his last 43, 4 for his last 50. I don't know the algorithm that decides the "cold" but he sure fits it. Pretty sure ROI is a factor too.

[GMB@BP]

Elated will be the favorite, not many races she hasn't been.

[Redboard]

Ex - , / ,

[Afleet]

Big money Mike

[Afleet]

what a finish!!!!!

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Big money Mike

now if he just wins the Travers I will have a good day

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Couldn't have been more wrong, but man what a race.
Gotta love horse racing when you lose money and still have a smile on your face. What a great race.