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Old 07-03-2012, 10:12 AM   #1
Valuist
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China

Interesting article in the recent Barrons on the problems looming in China. Noted short seller Jim Chanos has been talking about a massive real estate bubble in China for the past year or two and he could be right. I also believe as labor costs over there rise, you will see more manufacturing brought back here. My company has had all kinds of problems with the factories over there. You either have to have a full time babysitter, or send people over there continuosly to monitor them. They either don't give a $hit, or they cut corners using cheaper materials.
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Old 07-03-2012, 10:53 AM   #2
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I have tools made in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, and Germany. Only in Taiwan does it run like clockwork with little intervention. Smart people, high quality, responsive, consistently on time, and with a similar market sense like we have in the US.

The others all have plusses and minusses. Some more minus than plus.
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Old 07-03-2012, 10:56 AM   #3
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Chinese growth industry.
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Old 07-03-2012, 11:33 AM   #4
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For many years liberals have cooed and gurgled over the ChiComs and predicted that they would soon surpass us and become the leading world power. For even more years I have insisted that this is sheer bunk, that they were far behind us in many ways, still had huge problems with more to come, and would never come remotely close to equaling, let alone surpassing, the USA. During the Cold War, when Mao reigned, as part of their propaganda the ChiComs would sneer at us and call us the "Paper Tiger." Today it is Red China that is the Paper Tiger, and it is real, not propaganda. Their power and influence has been grossly overestimated by many, mainly by leftists, a mistake not made by those of us that view things realistically.
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Old 07-03-2012, 11:54 AM   #5
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A lot of the stuff we buy from China (tooling) is not worth the savings.
Not made to print, not made to directions, rework and repairs are commonplace, shipping costs are tremendous - we just paid $15,000 to air ship a mold to meet our customer deadline - the toll itself was $25,000.

Do you give a hoot about worker safety?
Forget China if you do.
They have too many people to worry about individuals.
I'll tell you a story later, but no time right now.
Funny how the tree hugging whackos are so quick to give other countries a pass on GW and other important issues that we live by here.

Some suppliers are good and turn out good products, but no good enough that there be any reason not to be building tools and molds here at home.
We are losing the people who understand this craft and without them we won't be training apprentices for the future.

If you want egg rolls, call China, otherwise, built it here and use it here.
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Old 07-03-2012, 12:24 PM   #6
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I met a guy from Norwich England who is a pipe specialist (for lack of a better term) in the oil industry.
He's basically a fix it guy who works all over the world when folks are having problems. He does a lot of work in China.
Their basic MO, according to him, is to sell you one product and deliver a cheaper knock off product that will surely fail.
S.O.P.
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Old 07-03-2012, 12:54 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Their basic MO, according to him, is to sell you one product and deliver a cheaper knock off product that will surely fail.
S.O.P.
That is exactly right. There's a book out about it called "Poorly made in China". Usually they will wait a little while to start cutting corners but once they do, the quality goes downhill in a hurry.
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Old 07-03-2012, 06:53 PM   #8
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I've never dealt with the Germans, but I'll stand up for the Japanese and the Israelis.

The Israeli's are a lot like us, their firms remind me of a good US firm, no difference. Good stand up guys, good communication. Military tech out the wazoo, educated out the wazoo. It all works, no surprises. Great partners.

The Japanese are just Japanese. The highest of quality, the most polite. They Will Get You An Answer. Spec'ing out something for Japanese mfg can be a nightmare, they want specs on things you never realized you needed specs for. But you know what? They're right. Worse still is doing to opposite, and trying to sell to a Japanese firm. But I dig that about them. If you want a real QA done, just try to sell your widget to Mitsubishi.

We do a lot of work with China. Some good, some bad. Always entertaining. If you ask them for something, they'll say yes.
They might have no idea what it is, but they'll say yes.
You ask for status, they'll say yes.
And then they'll deliver something.
Maybe not what you asked for, maybe something that is even mildly dangerous, maybe something that works just fine. Who knows.
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Old 07-03-2012, 07:07 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueShoe
For many years liberals have cooed and gurgled over the ChiComs and predicted that they would soon surpass us and become the leading world power. For even more years I have insisted that this is sheer bunk, that they were far behind us in many ways, still had huge problems with more to come, and would never come remotely close to equaling, let alone surpassing, the USA. During the Cold War, when Mao reigned, as part of their propaganda the ChiComs would sneer at us and call us the "Paper Tiger." Today it is Red China that is the Paper Tiger, and it is real, not propaganda. Their power and influence has been grossly overestimated by many, mainly by leftists, a mistake not made by those of us that view things realistically.
The irony is that the rise of China was due to a capitulation to Capitalism. From my understanding, the providences which do the best are those which have the least interference from Government Officials.

China's biggest problem going forward is that they committed to a merchantilist policy without paying enough attention to internal consumption. Now, their biggest customers are broke and all the Chinese have to show for it is a bunch of paper that a Princeton Professor can print at will.
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Old 07-03-2012, 07:24 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenhead
I've never dealt with the Germans, but I'll stand up for the Japanese and the Israelis.

The Israeli's are a lot like us, their firms remind me of a good US firm, no difference. Good stand up guys, good communication. Military tech out the wazoo, educated out the wazoo. It all works, no surprises. Great partners.

The Japanese are just Japanese. The highest of quality, the most polite. They Will Get You An Answer. Spec'ing out something for Japanese mfg can be a nightmare, they want specs on things you never realized you needed specs for. But you know what? They're right. Worse still is doing to opposite, and trying to sell to a Japanese firm. But I dig that about them. If you want a real QA done, just try to sell your widget to Mitsubishi.

We do a lot of work with China. Some good, some bad. Always entertaining. If you ask them for something, they'll say yes.
They might have no idea what it is, but they'll say yes.
You ask for status, they'll say yes.
And then they'll deliver something.
Maybe not what you asked for, maybe something that is even mildly dangerous, maybe something that works just fine. Who knows.
heh, I've been there, done that with respect to the Japanese. working for them and supplying to them, Mitsu, Toyota, Honda. It can be frustrating but also a learning experience. there's nothing without a spec, and they sweat over the smallest details. you have to bring your A game to when you work with them.
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Old 07-03-2012, 07:40 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badcompany
The irony is that the rise of China was due to a capitulation to Capitalism. From my understanding, the providences which do the best are those which have the least interference from Government Officials.

China's biggest problem going forward is that they committed to a merchantilist policy without paying enough attention to internal consumption. Now, their biggest customers are broke and all the Chinese have to show for it is a bunch of paper that a Princeton Professor can print at will.
Their biggest customers, being broke, and having lost most of their manufacturing need cheap goods from China more than ever.

They have huge commodity investments all over Africa

They have bought out companies on the cheap all over the Western World

USA citizens will be paying tax to them for decades in the form of loan interest

They have cornered the World's supply of rare earth metals

"Mainland China's gold imports from Hong Kong surged more than sixfold in the first quarter, to 156 metric tons, adding to signs that the country may displace India as the world's largest consumer of the precious metal on an annual basis." And the punchline: "The purchases through Hong Kong may signal that the mainland is accumulating reserves, London-based brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd. said in February. The nation last made its reserves known more than two years ago, stating them at 1,054 tons.

That is what they have achieved in just 30 years.
With tens of thousands of graduates in engineering and science they won't be caught anytime soon by a dumbed down America.
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Old 07-04-2012, 12:19 PM   #12
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Reading the Chicago posters & Chick's posts here, I'm nodding my head and saying Yes out loud. I sure wish the levels at Director and above would see this side of the arguement for a return to a quality product (and i do mean 'arguement'..., of which there are likely many in every corp, i'd imagine, about bringing mfg' back to the states---"price and cost are two different things" as people like us have said for decades.)

There's an old saying about suppliers that fits China to a tee. "Suppliers are like dogs --- they'll eat anything in front of them". Chinese suppliers too often applies for and lowballs bids that they have no way of producing a quality product on time...Same for Mexico, on a lesser scale

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