I notice a night and day difference between the philosophies of handicappers who default to trips, track bias and rides for explaining race to race variations in performance vs those handicappers who focus on the horses condition as the default. It's that old horses are basically
machines thought process which runs somewhat contrary to the philosophy of a race being a stressful event for a horse.
Race day condition IMO is a blend of the physical and mental which at its peak allows for a willingness to lay it all on the line and which post-race can leave the horse lethargic and essentially vulnerable. This willingness varies by individual and can vary widely from one race to the next for the same individual. Many horses will hold back and protect themselves when they aren't yet ready to lay it all on the line again. That IMO is what we're looking at here with Just Steel, a horse running on somewhat short spacing that protects itself after peak efforts until it's eventually fully ready to give that level of effort again. There are also horses I believe will hold back just enough almost every race and happen to be talented enough to still be competitive doing so. It allows for both an easier post-race recovery and allows for putting forth a more consistent level of effort each race.
Sometimes a horse with wider spacing will hit a peak effort and be sharp enough to come right back and pair it up on short rest. They're so sharp they decide to risk laying it all on the line again. I've seen lastingly ill effects from this sometimes. I've seen everything from physical breakdowns shortly afterward to horses that quickly sour on racing and never seem to get back to that level of effort again.
This horse (Just Steel) IMO is over-raced so far but protects itself. I would still suggest backing off a couple of weeks more between races. By doing so we might start to see more consistent levels of effort as well as possibly even see a shorter number of weeks between peak efforts. I'm not against the Preakness but the Derby was not good timing at all given the level of effort made in the final prep. With that said I understand why you enter, it's really hard not to. It's why Todd was in shortly after a peak, he has to be in, unless the horse is a flat out cripple.
On Fierceness, again IMO we have a horse protecting itself after a peak, mentally or physically you take your pick, he never has paired up, we don't need to go to trips and bias to explain this regression but feel free to do as you wish. I thought I heard Mr. Repole mention possibly training up to the Derby from the Holy Bull. Maybe I heard that incorrectly or maybe he was just joking but crazy as it sounds at the time I perked up... 100% speaking my language. You want to go nuclear in the right race.
The only footnote I'll add to that thought is three horses in a photo ended up running a 5.5 so even if he ran back to his two peak efforts of 6's they still may have actually beaten him as they both moved forward.
