What do you know about Maiden Claimers?

[rubicon55]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Maiden Claimers?

1. Seldom if ever bet first time starters - exception would be excellent morning drills and other entrants have nowhere ran near par in their starts.

2. Pay attention to the trainer-jockey stats. If the "go to" guy is in the saddle where he hasn't been in previous races, trainer intent is present.

3. Maiden Sp wt to Maiden claiming is a huge class drop at most major tracks.
Beware the dropper who was purchased for a very high price and is now coming in for a low price. Make sure that you check his appearance in the Post Parade, he's (she's) for sale and might not be intact. However, sometimes with the drop, it might be able to win on 3 legs against a weak field.

4. Maidens are usually the most honest horses at the track. If you don't play those races, you'll miss out on several horizontal exotic opportunities.

5. Watch for barn changes. A maiden switching to a poor trainer usually doesn't do as well as before. A maiden switching to a "hot shot" trainer may improve in leaps and bounds. Check the trainer's stats with first time take overs.

6. Don't label a Maiden with a particular running style until it's had several races. When you toss out a runner who you've suspected is a "need to lead"
type and won't get the lead, you'll be shocked how frequently that runner may show a better performance from behind the pace.

Very Good Points Grey Fox, I agree on all counts. Especially in regard to Trainer/Jockey angle which a lot of times indicates a positive intent. I might throw in Maidens finshing second in their last race and look for improving Maidens in the fall since they have had time to mature. Sometimes they will need a race or two if they race greenly. I try to avoid "professional" madiens that never seem to graduate (4 or more races in Maiden Ranks) unless there is a drop in class.

[jorcus]

I was going to bring up the issue of the "professional maiden". I know there are a lot of them but If I see a horse with good recent form, in the right spot and I think I can evaluate the horses it's running against I will bet the Pro maiden from time to time. As long as they are not losing because they hang. Sometimes it just takes awhile to get the horse in the right race.

Originally Posted by ldiatone

some view what horses finished 2nd or 3rd in the last race and reason the winner is not in the this race so that(2nd,or3rd finisher) horse is a contender. some don't even consider maidens w/ a record of 8 races or more w/ no wins, "professional maiden".
i veiw pars, and if horses in MSW's don't run close to pars then i consider FTS w/ good workouts.

[wonatthewire1]

Originally Posted by rubicon55

Very Good Points Grey Fox, I agree on all counts. Especially in regard to Trainer/Jockey angle which a lot of times indicates a positive intent. I might throw in Maidens finshing second in their last race and look for improving Maidens in the fall since they have had time to mature. Sometimes they will need a race or two if they race greenly. I try to avoid "professional" madiens that never seem to graduate (4 or more races in Maiden Ranks) unless there is a drop in class.

open msw to state bred msw is a drop that a lot of people miss

happens a lot in Louisiana and Texas

[Linny]

My MDCL rules involve several angles.

I start with the belief that almost every maiden horse is overvalued. The MSW's will probably have to go to MDCL or a cheaper circuit's MSW's to win. (The very good horses are the exceptions, not the rules.)

Rule 1: Avoid "professional maidens." The are 0-fers and often run 2nd or 3rd, thus they are overbet. If they win, I lose. (Keep them in mind for EX/TRI/SFA though.)

Rule 2: MDCL stats are important. Some trainers are average with all maidens but much higher with MDCL's. These guys are pretty good and spotting their stock, and at reading the stock in the other barns. They are usually claiming trainers used to eyeballing everyone else's horses. This angle is especially important if the horse is being debuted for a tag.

Rule 3: Ignore the purhase price vs the claiming tag. Once a horse has shown it can't run with MSW's many outfits are looking to cut losses and open stalls for new prospects. This rule is especially important on major circuits like NY SoCal and at times KY where expensive babies are common.

Rule 4: Pay close attention to maidens who have been claimed. It seems that when certain trainers claim maidens they improve, no matter how bad they looked before. This is doubly important if the claim is small barn to major outfit.

Rule 5: Pay close attention to class rises. A small rise in class can be a sign of trainer confidence. This only applies in full fields where I don't suspect that the trainer was "hustled" by the racing office to fill the race. Class rise with a blinker change and fast work is a favorite combo.

I'm in NY where high priced MDCL's are common. At meets like Saratoga, I think that many MSW to MDCL$50 will need more class relief to win but owners don't want to declare a horse a dud. I rarely pay attention to owners but at meets like SAR and KEE I look for owners who are in the running for "Owner titles" to drop with impunity to win their award. Repole is famous for it in NY. Ramsey is another not afraid to risk a horse.

[menifee]

On the class drop angle from msw to maiden claimers - the drop doesn't mean that much for 2 yr olds in july, august, september. It means more when their three and in the late fall of their 2 yr old season.

I think the hardest thing about maiden claimers is picking winners, but I think the easiest thing to do is to pick horses that will finish 2nd or 3rd and not win the race. Often those that get second or third in previous maiden claimers are way overbet next time out but always find a way to hang again. Great if you are playing vertical exotics.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I look for horses that I think can control the pace and class droppers that ran a decent race in strong field that doesn't look as good as it was on paper.

It's funny because I get my best results in graded stakes and maiden claimers but they are not handicapped alike.

That's because Class counts for graded stakes and maiden claimers. I'm going to look at using BRIS class ratings instead of speed or workouts since they overwhelming theme here seems to be class.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by BeatTheChalk

Whatever you are doing to win in other types of races .. Trade for my
knowledge of the maidens. A bit of tongue in cheek here..
But I have found the best way to play maiden claimers : Look at the
second call times of each horse. Find the top 3 horses and go from there.

Sharing is difficult. We work hard for our understanding. I appreciate it.

[jorcus]

It's a good point about the vertical exotics. One thing Maiden Claimers often have is a wide seperation in ability from first to last. You will often find solid toss outs because the horses have run enough times and shown no ability. They often run for weak connections. This is especially true for bottom level maiden claiming fillies which is the weakest group on the grounds. The ability seperation from first to last can be big and it's much easier to seperate out the pretenders.

Originally Posted by menifee

On the class drop angle from msw to maiden claimers - the drop doesn't mean that much for 2 yr olds in july, august, september. It means more when their three and in the late fall of their 2 yr old season.

I think the hardest thing about maiden claimers is picking winners, but I think the easiest thing to do is to pick horses that will finish 2nd or 3rd and not win the race. Often those that get second or third in previous maiden claimers are way overbet next time out but always find a way to hang again. Great if you are playing vertical exotics.

[OTM Al]

You almost never can get a decent price on the MSW to MCL drop anymore, but it is a big drop. When I bet these races I also look for horses that haven't run too many time and those that got on or near the lead early in the race, even if they finished 8th by 13. Those that just missed in the end are way overbet and are just as likely to miss again. These fields can be dominated by one that can just get out front more than any other type of race IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

I start with the track bias, then project the setup of the race

most of these guys need help to win

[Valuist]

Avoid first timer starters. Avoid runners with too many races (usually over 10).

Do NOT toss out a horse because it has had 6 or 7 starts. Maiden claimers are kind of like musical chairs. It takes most horses several races to work their way thru.

Do not throw out runners coming off small layoffs. A horse that ran 4th at the current level 55 days ago may have actually finished in front of two or three horses who have since broken their maiden.

Drop downs are obviously important, but especially droppers who have some degree of early speed.

Key races are a very strong angle in maiden claimers.

[Linny]

I agree on key races. Some MDCL's just seem to come up very weak and others quite strong, relative to the class.

Droppers from MSW's at 2 are riskier because the horses haven't found their level yet and because many MDCL's feature almost all class droppers.

With a lightly raced horse, I like what I call "lightbulb" signs. They are the wakeups that a horse has. Increased early speed, a fast work (if he'd never done so before) or a sudden strong closing move are signs that a horse is starting to "get it."

I like to watch video replays for horses with one or two races. Unless I played them in the 1st or 2nd start, I may not have really noticed them at all in the running. Sometimes, even when they are badly beaten you can see signs of life, like a middle move or late interest or just running straight in the lane.

[davew]

I like the ones that have few starts

and were bet heavy on their first outing but did not win

[salty]

suffolk race 2 today looks pretty bad. how would you pick the winner of this 5,000 mdn clm?

-the 7/5 mL favorite's record is 13-0-2-2.

A race that looks like this usually lights up the board, but it is pretty tough to guess what will happen.

[salty]

well it was a good example until 3 of the 8 are scratched.