KY Derby Tote Analysis

[Nitro]

Derby Tote Analysis - from Wed / Thurs / Fri until 7:00 PM

Screenshot attached

PAR Value = All Mutual & Exacta betting pools combined -

ENTRY Value = Only combined wagers on a specific entry

EVALUATION = Comparison of each Value, first to PAR and then to one another. Those below or closest to PAR are the entries of interest.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Hmmm. I'm fully aware I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but Nitro are you trying to demonstrate that wagering over a period of several days for the Derby actually tells us much?

I would guess that early bets are made by squares and don't represent too much sharp money. I would also guess that certain combinations in the exacta pool may reveal some sharp money flow, but how can it not be more difficult with the once-per-year bettors flooding the pools with their birthdays, age, license plate numbers and so on?

Today we got some insight with the Oaks-Derby double payoffs. But I haven't seen anything earth shattering yet.

Now maybe this afternoon we'll see some Sha Tin steam come on the scene, and one or two horses get their odds cut in half in the last minute before the gates open. That would be wild.

One Derby I do recall the tote seemed tilted was when Sea Hero won. I didn't like him at all, and remember being quite surprised he was seeing action that day, something like 10-1 when I thought he should have been 25-1. Of course I ignored it, and Sea Plug is now a part of Derby history.

[Nitro]

Derby Tote Analysis - from Wed / Thurs / Fri / Sat until 5:00 PM

Screenshot attached

PAR Value = All Mutual & Exacta betting pools combined -

ENTRY Value = Only combined wagers on a specific entry

EVALUATION = Comparison of each Entry Value, first to PAR and then to one another. Those below or closest to PAR are the entries of interest.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Hmmm. I'm fully aware I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but Nitro are you trying to demonstrate that wagering over a period of several days for the Derby actually tells us much?

I would guess that early bets are made by squares and don't represent too much sharp money. I would also guess that certain combinations in the exacta pool may reveal some sharp money flow, but how can it not be more difficult with the once-per-year bettors flooding the pools with their birthdays, age, license plate numbers and so on?
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That's not the purpose of the tote analysis. Whether its 15 minutes to post or 2 days to post early money is what it is.
What's more important is to watch how the Entry Values change relative to each other and to the PAR Value as each part of the betting cycle progresses.
GL

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

That's not the purpose of the tote analysis. Whether its 15 minutes to post or 2 days to post early money is what it is.
What's more important is to watch how the Entry Values change relative to each other and to the PAR Value as each part of the betting cycle progresses.
GL

Take it for whatever is worth, but the only reason I included #3, Mystic Dan into my posted “entries of interest” along with the 2 Keys was because of the statement I made (above).

If you refer to the screenshot, you’ll notice its Entry Value on Wed. and how it dropped over 100 points by Sat. It was the only entry listed that took that much of a plunge! I probably should have regarded that change more significantly when posting my pre-race selections.
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