PaceAppraiser V.1.0

[headhawg]

I think going to RPM is just expanding the market for their software and hoping for more potential sales. Developers cannot survive without steady revenue. When a new product comes out most of the sales happen early in the cycle. After a time, everyone who is going to buy the product already has. What are a developer's options? Finding new customers, creating new products that lead to new sales, or creating a product that has a continual revenue stream (the HDW data model). Maintaining a website is expensive, and so is developing new products. The market is so tiny that a developer has to justify the cost to bring a new product to market versus potential sales. (This is true no matter the size of the market.)

Moving to RPM at least gives the developer a chance to earn a little more revenue. Handicappers who shop there may not be the same people who visit PA. Many of the members here are sharp, and won't be fooled by the claims of 37% Win% with +.35 ROI. That doesn't mean that there aren't products at RPM that don't have value. It's just difficult to find what's real and what's just a product that appeals to the greedy/lazy/uniformed handicapper.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I think going to RPM is just expanding the market for their software and hoping for more potential sales. Developers cannot survive without steady revenue. When a new product comes out most of the sales happen early in the cycle. After a time, everyone who is going to buy the product already has. What are a developer's options? Finding new customers, creating new products that lead to new sales, or creating a product that has a continual revenue stream (the HDW data model). Maintaining a website is expensive, and so is developing new products. The market is so tiny that a developer has to justify the cost to bring a new product to market versus potential sales. (This is true no matter the size of the market.)

Moving to RPM at least gives the developer a chance to earn a little more revenue. Handicappers who shop there may not be the same people who visit PA. Many of the members here are sharp, and won't be fooled by the claims of 37% Win% with +.35 ROI. That doesn't mean that there aren't products at RPM that don't have value. It's just difficult to find what's real and what's just a product that appeals to the greedy/lazy/uniformed handicapper.

[lefty359]

Have you or anybody tested this any further?

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Have you tried segmenting Turf and Dirt
and sprints and Routes?

No. I'll explain. The Program does allow you to create "Filter Combo" say for Dirt/Turf Sprints or Routes to make it easy. All one needs to switch these "Filter Combos". But I guess you know that Lefty359 since you had the program at one time. But again I didn't do that segmenting.

I usually segment race type classes like G class, Claimers, Maidens to find *Bonus* plays that usually return more money later. But first I want to get a general handle on how well the software is working.

I bought a group of RPM Giant Handicapping programs of which "HCLab Pace Appraiser" was one of them. Then decide which one of the following was the
best and build a result database in Excel workbooks.

So when I have more time if that graciously happens I will look into "HCLab Pace Appraiser" more. I thought it would be a good program to unite people here at paceadvantage.com


Triopstor.

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

The story on most of RPM"s stuff....

Is that the fault of RPM Handicapping Giant or is that just the nature of the horse racing game? I think it's more the nature of the game.

THE GAME FLIP FLOPS
==============
There is a selection system for every winner. Things flip flop.

There were so many systems to select the Kentucky Derby 2024 hopefuls yet only 1 winner. I didn't like the as I thought they would fall away. had too much early energy %. And the had it's best effort last race. I used Nick Borg's The Kentucky Derby Super System to isolate 2 potential winners and .

Turns out that the winner had maybe the best work out a 1/72 58.0B. Not many handicapping software look at workouts.

So the winners flip flop from between horses on record(past performance), horses that take advantage of a new pace, horses that are tired, horses that have accidents, weather, jockey miscalculations, horses that are improving. I think the was an improving horse that won the Kentucky Derby 2024.


COMBATING THE FLIP FLOP
=================
It seems logical to run at least two different separate handicapping programs to avoid long losing streaks.

Another idea to combat losing streaks is to run multiple handicapping systems and only start wagering each one when it has lost say for example(but it depends)5 times in a row for a certain track. Must keep tracks separately as a strong recommendation.


Triopstor.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

Is that the fault of RPM Handicapping Giant or is that just the nature of the horse racing game? I think it's more the nature of the game.

I think the main objection that people have to the RPM products is their marketing hype. Experienced handicappers know that the Win%/ROI numbers won't hold up under scrutiny. Did they lie about the numbers in their ads? Probably not, but they were likely very selective about the races from their database they used for their analyses.

I applaud your effort in keeping track of the results in Excel. That's more than most will do. Maybe you will find programs that specialize in one type of race. Maybe its 6f on the dirt for one program and turf routes at SA for another. If you are going to invest your time in Handicapper's Lab I recommend that you read Extreme Pace Handicapping by Randy Giles. The PaceAppraiser site is no longer available but using the Wayback Machine (Internet Archive) you can see some articles. Try the July 18, 2012 date and click on the Articles tab near the top of the page. You might find something useful there.

Good luck to you.

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Have you or anybody tested this any further?

No not since Pace Appraiser FILTER COMBO(Filter=FFR3+ PZC 20%T) I hit a slump as the New York Circuit switched to BELMONT track. Worked great for AQUEDUCT so far.

BELMONT RESULTS(Filter=FFR3+ & PZC & 20%T)
==============================
2023/05/04 to 2023/05/29

$0.00 $0.00 $2.70
$3.70 $2.30 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $2.80 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$12.00 $4.10 $2.90
$0.00 $2.70 $2.70
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$8.90 $3.70 $2.40
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.10 $2.10
$0.00 $3.70 $3.00
$7.60 $4.10 $3.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $4.10 $2.90
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $2.50 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$10.00 $5.10 $3.70
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.30
$0.00 $5.20 $3.10
$11.00 $5.00 $3.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$16.20 $7.30 $3.90
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $6.70 $4.50
$2.90 $2.30 $2.10
$0.00 $5.60 $3.20
$0.00 $3.10 $2.40
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.30
$0.00 $8.40 $3.50
$0.00 $0.00 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$3.10 $3.10 $3.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $4.00 $2.80
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.30
$0.00 $0.00 $2.80
$7.20 $4.60 $3.00
$0.00 $0.00 $4.20
$3.90 $2.70 $2.90
$0.00 $0.00 $2.80
$0.00 $0.00 $2.60
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $8.40 $4.20
$0.00 $0.00 $2.60
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.80
$6.60 $5.00 $3.30
$0.00 $0.00 $2.70
$3.90 $3.00 $2.50
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.30 $2.10
$8.50 $3.10 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $3.00
$5.10 $3.30 $2.10
$3.90 $2.80 $2.40
$0.00 $0.00 $7.60
$5.20 $2.60 $2.10
$4.30 $3.00 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $3.70
$0.00 $0.00 $2.20
$4.20 $2.90 $2.60
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.90
$0.00 $3.40 $2.30
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$4.40 $2.90 $2.20
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.60 $2.70
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $3.50
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.30 $2.20
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
--------------------------------
Total: 106 Races For The Month 18.86% Winners $132.60 -37.45% ROI
Place $146.80 -30.75% ROI
Show $156.60 -26.13% ROI

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I think the main objection that people have to the RPM products is their marketing hype. Experienced handicappers know that the Win%/ROI numbers won't hold up under scrutiny. Did they lie about the numbers in their ads? Probably not, but they were likely very selective about the races from their database they used for their analyses.

I applaud your effort in keeping track of the results in Excel. That's more than most will do. Maybe you will find programs that specialize in one type of race. Maybe its 6f on the dirt for one program and turf routes at SA for another. If you are going to invest your time in Handicapper's Lab I recommend that you read Extreme Pace Handicapping by Randy Giles. The PaceAppraiser site is no longer available but using the Wayback Machine (Internet Archive) you can see some articles. Try the July 18, 2012 date and click on the Articles tab near the top of the page. You might find something useful there.

Good luck to you.

Thanks bud! This was a most helpful post. Awesome post! Extreme Pace Handicapping by Randy Giles. Use the Wayback Machine(Internet Archive) on July 18, 2012. Really appreciate your help headhawg.

And good luck and skill to you too!


Triopstor.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

No not since Pace Appraiser FILTER COMBO(Filter=FFR3+ PZC 20%T) I hit a slump as the New York Circuit switched to BELMONT track. Worked great for AQUEDUCT so far.

BELMONT RESULTS(Filter=FFR3+ & PZC & 20%T)
==============================
2023/05/04 to 2023/05/29

$0.00 $0.00 $2.70
$3.70 $2.30 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $2.80 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$12.00 $4.10 $2.90
$0.00 $2.70 $2.70
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$8.90 $3.70 $2.40
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.10 $2.10
$0.00 $3.70 $3.00
$7.60 $4.10 $3.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $4.10 $2.90
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $2.50 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$10.00 $5.10 $3.70
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.30
$0.00 $5.20 $3.10
$11.00 $5.00 $3.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$16.20 $7.30 $3.90
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $6.70 $4.50
$2.90 $2.30 $2.10
$0.00 $5.60 $3.20
$0.00 $3.10 $2.40
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.30
$0.00 $8.40 $3.50
$0.00 $0.00 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$3.10 $3.10 $3.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $4.00 $2.80
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.30
$0.00 $0.00 $2.80
$7.20 $4.60 $3.00
$0.00 $0.00 $4.20
$3.90 $2.70 $2.90
$0.00 $0.00 $2.80
$0.00 $0.00 $2.60
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $8.40 $4.20
$0.00 $0.00 $2.60
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.80
$6.60 $5.00 $3.30
$0.00 $0.00 $2.70
$3.90 $3.00 $2.50
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.30 $2.10
$8.50 $3.10 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $3.00
$5.10 $3.30 $2.10
$3.90 $2.80 $2.40
$0.00 $0.00 $7.60
$5.20 $2.60 $2.10
$4.30 $3.00 $2.10
$0.00 $0.00 $3.70
$0.00 $0.00 $2.20
$4.20 $2.90 $2.60
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $2.90
$0.00 $3.40 $2.30
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$4.40 $2.90 $2.20
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.60 $2.70
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $3.50
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $3.30 $2.20
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
--------------------------------
Total: 106 Races For The Month 18.86% Winners $132.60 -37.45% ROI
Place $146.80 -30.75% ROI
Show $156.60 -26.13% ROI

For your information.....Races are still at Aqu...

They call it Bel at Aqu ...why ? I don't know

Belmont is anticipated to open next year...after renovations

So blaming Bel is incorrect..It just failed as expected with most programs

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

For your information.....Races are still at Aqu...

They call it Bel at Aqu ...why ? I don't know

Belmont is anticipated to open next year...after renovations

So blaming Bel is incorrect..It just failed as expected with most programs

I checked my records. May 2023 was run at BELmont. Even the racing results say BElmont for
2023-05-04, 2023-05-15 and 2023-05-29. So no running at AQUeduct. The Track switched from AQU(good results) to BEL(bad results).

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I think going to RPM is just expanding the market for their software and hoping for more potential sales. Developers cannot survive without steady revenue. When a new product comes out most of the sales happen early in the cycle. After a time, everyone who is going to buy the product already has. What are a developer's options? Finding new customers, creating new products that lead to new sales, or creating a product that has a continual revenue stream (the HDW data model). Maintaining a website is expensive, and so is developing new products. The market is so tiny that a developer has to justify the cost to bring a new product to market versus potential sales. (This is true no matter the size of the market.)

Moving to RPM at least gives the developer a chance to earn a little more revenue. Handicappers who shop there may not be the same people who visit PA. Many of the members here are sharp, and won't be fooled by the claims of 37% Win% with +.35 ROI. That doesn't mean that there aren't products at RPM that don't have value. It's just difficult to find what's real and what's just a product that appeals to the greedy/lazy/uniformed handicapper.

Yes. They launch new products often if not a sale of one of their current/old programs.

I like your quote "It's just difficult to find what's real and what's just a product that appeals to the greedy/lazy/uniformed handicapper."

There is an appeal to nostalgia too. Old paper book systems put on software.


Triopstor.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

I checked my records. May 2023 was run at BELmont. Even the racing results say BElmont for
2023-05-04, 2023-05-15 and 2023-05-29. So no running at AQUeduct. The Track switched from AQU(good results) to BEL(bad results).

2023?

my bad ..sorry

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

Yes. They launch new products often if not a sale of one of their current/old programs.

I like your quote "It's just difficult to find what's real and what's just a product that appeals to the greedy/lazy/uniformed handicapper."

There is an appeal to nostalgia too. Old paper book systems put on software.

If you're having fun and enjoying the research I am not going to discourage you. But "nostalgic" systems are the way to the poor house. (This is true of systems in general, imo.) It reminds me of a line from Percentages and Probabilities 2012 regarding a particular factor: "It would appear that this factor is no longer effective, if it ever was." (emphasis mine)

To wit, I did some research on ~35 systems a couple of years ago testing them on 56,000+ races. Most were take from PRN newsletters/gold books but a couple were standalone systems that are still available to buy. As expected, the results were not good. Only three systems outperformed betting the favorite with the best having a .88 ROI. While somewhat encouraging that particular system only matched its criteria in 2% of the races tested so definitely not an everyday playable system. However, it did point to higher-priced horses so maybe it can be tweaked to improve the win%. I haven't gotten around to doing that yet.

[wiretowire68]

curious with the new Belmont, polytrack (which will help with the shippers heading to Gulfstream and Turfway over the winter months) They have completely torn up the dirt and the grass courses. Belmont always had speed bias on grass sprinting in terms of flat 6F.

I guess new pars will be interesting once they start racing and data starts to stream, not that there are different times are all that drastic. I was wondering, is this the end of Aqueduct as we know it? Is the newly renovated Belmont and the Spa will be the only tracks used as far as the Greater New York market. They are adding lights for night racing as part of the package.

All the top jocks head to Gulfstream over the winter anyways. I know it is to get away from the cold and the importance of the preps for Triple crown and all other racing. Does The Big A. and Aqueduct end. I have not heard of any rumors if they plan to close the actual meets there? Is this last year for doing pars for the place.

It is pretty obvious that with the rink (Islanders being there and build up of new stables etc.) That is a great deal of land that NYRA has there. Anybody chime in on what happens. I know with BC being held at Del Mar the next two years. 2026 has not been issued. With Pimlico being rebuilt, Churchill renovated and now Belmont, it will be very interesting who they issue it to? I imagine it goes to Belmont for 2027 and beyond that will be interesting as well. Will Stronach and Pimlico put forward or is the weather an issue. I believe if they really want to add some interest, perhaps add a couple of races to the two days for Poly or Synthetic for specialists. At least if I was marketing this, it could add more interest. I know it was a flop at Santa Anita because it was synthetic early 2000's. I am from T.O. but we because of the long meet..dropped dirt and installed the latest synthetic which according to many experts is proving statistically that it is safer in terms of overall breakdowns.

[headhawg]

What does any of that have to do with the thread? Just rambling as usual