What position will Sierra Leone be in going into the first turn?

[Lert]

I'm thinking 14th, buried inside, surrounded 5 deep. I just can't see him getting any kind of trip from that inside post.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

I can see anywhere from 12th to 20th.

Not real concerned about it. Lookin' At Lee rallied from 16th in 2017 out of the 1 hole on a sloppy track to get 2nd.

I have very little doubt Sierra Leone is a much better horse than that one. He is an intelligent horse and doesn't run up other horses arses when making his run and he finds his room and has squeezed through some spots already in his short career.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I can see anywhere from 12th to 20th.

Not real concerned about it. Lookin' At Lee rallied from 16th in 2017 out of the 1 hole on a sloppy track to get 2nd.

I have very little doubt Sierra Leone is a much better horse than that one. He is an intelligent horse and doesn't run up other horses arses when making his run and he finds his room and has squeezed through some spots already in his short career.

As usual, astute insight. Much is made of SL's size and propensity to lug in in the stretch. What's been missed is that the horse has proven to be really easy to handle at other points in the race. As you alluded to, his run going into the 2nd turn in the Bluegrass, for example, where he's wide, then darts to the rail between horses, then comes wide again to make his bid.

[sovereign]

A bad position

[Aerocraft67]

Actually, 14th sounds about right, and not so bad. He gets sucked into a decent spot at the end of midpack, ahead of any hardcore plodders and unlucky runners that don't want to be there.

A primary reason to like Sierra Leone is that he can get a trip. He doesn't have to be last, and it's not like he needs some ideal position. If you like him, you're not terribly worried about the post.

Wherever he is entering the turn, he has nearly a mile to work out a trip.

[wisconsin]

It's not like he's going to 25 lengths back. Lots of people are exaggerating his role as a deep closer. He is a closer, no question, but it's not like he has had to make up impossible ground.

[burnsy]

He’s not gonna be way, way back but the TV coverage is kind of a joke . Bailey and gang keep saying Fierceness has gate trouble which starting he did a couple times coming out . But the Bluegrass was held up for minutes because of Sierra Leone . I mean , he was refusing at first . They’re just talking about the closing part…… just like everyone. In this race you don’t want to be pissing energy away getting in the gate . Physically or mentally.

[MJC922]

I only have him ahead of the 4, 7 and 22 on first quarter pace figures, and the 4 and 22 well within a point of him anyway so they're close enough for either one or both to be right alongside into the first turn. Even the 7 who SL is legitimately ahead of by slightly more than a point is projected to be last after a quarter on my numbers is not way far off of SL at all and there's a long run into the first turn so the riders have options if they really want to push up a length or two while working their way over.

So I think he's way way back in here but I'm playing for a fast early pace anyway. If he's ahead of like 6 or 7 horses at the first quarter and surrounded inside I don't like the sounds of that due to traffic etc but it's all a gamble. Good luck.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by MJC922

So I think he's way way back in here but I'm playing for a fast early pace anyway. If he's ahead of like 6 or 7 horses at the first quarter and surrounded inside I don't like the sounds of that due to traffic etc but it's all a gamble. Good luck.

He's never been further than 12 lengths back at any call, so I'm not entirely sure why everyone thinks he'll be so far back, and as most closers do, they spread out behind the front-runners and pressers. He isn't going to be stuck when his run starts, and he'll go outside, like so many closers do (Orb, Grindstone, Giacamo, and others). He's not going to ever be 20th like Gato Del Sol was and won't have to work out the kind of nightmare trip everyone thinks. The pretenders are done on the turn, and he won't have to pass more than maybe 5 horses at this point.

[zico20]

I got him running second last about 15 lengths off the lead down the backstretch stuck on the rail. Be a miracle if he wins!

[Parkview_Pirate]

He'll be near the back, and hoping to channel Unbridled's trip in 1990, weaving in and out of traffic like a snake. If he gets a smooth trip (somehow), he'll be easy to spot in deep stretch - gaining position quickly on most of the field.

He'll need some luck to win, though not a miracle, IMHO.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

He's never been further than 12 lengths back at any call, so I'm not entirely sure why everyone thinks he'll be so far back, and as most closers do, they spread out behind the front-runners and pressers. He isn't going to be stuck when his run starts, and he'll go outside, like so many closers do (Orb, Grindstone, Giacamo, and others). He's not going to ever be 20th like Gato Del Sol was and won't have to work out the kind of nightmare trip everyone thinks. The pretenders are done on the turn, and he won't have to pass more than maybe 5 horses at this point.

Last year was an 18 horse field and at the first quarter Tapit Trice was running clearly dead last about 12 lengths back so if you go by 12 lengths as a barometer of sorts to where the horse might be I can see something along those lines i.e last or nearly last. Maybe with a bigger field this year a couple of extra horses might be behind him like Honor Marie but not many. It's difficult to look at previous preps and judge this by lengths IMO, this is a 10 furlong race that features a giant field with a sometimes sub-46 opening half, closers might be as far back in here as they ever will be in their careers. Not a dealbreaker IMO but there are years where it goes in 47 and if that's the case here he might not even run third. I can't see it being 47 this year but it happens.