Ray Taulbot Selections

[equusvates]

This is how I use the information the previous PDF's display. Firstly, I use the attached file 60% for my selection's decisions. I use the grid about 20% and angles and pace scenarios for the remainder of my decision making. The attached graph shows the form cycle of each horse when pacelines with fractions are available. I give the last race the most weight unless the race should be ignored.

There is a horizontal fuchsia colored line which shows the expected true pace for the upcoming race. If a horse has never exceeded or approached that line, the horse is not considered for a win spot. If the horse is consistently far off the expected pace line, I confidently throw the horse out. When looking at the graph you can see very competitive races which for me are a pass.

I see the information shown in the PDF files on a large monitor, so I am simultaneously seeing my odds line, the trainer - jockey combinations, pace scenarios and angles so it usually only takes me about a minute or two to make my selections. I use the colors to alert me to good looking prospects. To get the longshots I use "good stuff always outweighs bad stuff". Hope you don't suffer from analysis paralysis.

Will add little colored symbols showing trouble as I have on my monitor.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by equusvates

This is how I use the information the previous PDF's display. Firstly, I use the attached file 60% for my selection's decisions. I use the grid about 20% and angles and pace scenarios for the remainder of my decision making. The attached graph shows the form cycle of each horse when pacelines with fractions are available. I give the last race the most weight unless the race should be ignored.

There is a horizontal fuchsia colored line which shows the expected true pace for the upcoming race. If a horse has never exceeded or approached that line, the horse is not considered for a win spot. If the horse is consistently far off the expected pace line, I confidently throw the horse out. When looking at the graph you can see very competitive races which for me are a pass.

I see the information shown in the PDF files on a large monitor, so I am simultaneously seeing my odds line, the trainer - jockey combinations, pace scenarios and angles so it usually only takes me about a minute or two to make my selections. I use the colors to alert me to good looking prospects. To get the longshots I use "good stuff always outweighs bad stuff". Hope you don't suffer from analysis paralysis.

Will add little colored symbols showing trouble as I have on my monitor.

Best viewed on a 4K or better monitor.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by equusvates

Best viewed on a 4K or better monitor.

Added icons:

Filled circle:
LIME: first
CYAN: second
YELLOW: third
DARK YELLOW: fourth

Filled square: is the paceline that the program is using to rate the horese's true pace.


Unfilled circle:
light magenta: 2 points of trouble
magenta: 3 points of trouble
dark magenta: 4 points of trouble
red: 5 or more points of trouble

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by equusvates

Added icons:

Filled circle:
LIME: first
CYAN: second
YELLOW: third
DARK YELLOW: fourth

Filled square: is the paceline that the program is using to rate the horese's true pace.


Unfilled circle:
light magenta: 2 points of trouble
magenta: 3 points of trouble
dark magenta: 4 points of trouble
red: 5 or more points of trouble

Maybe a better contrasting background.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by equusvates

Maybe a better contrasting background.

Did not draw program number on single paceline entry.

[equusvates]

If paceline on the graph goes slightly below the bottom axis, the true pace rating is missing. May be a foreign horse, horse did not finish the race or the rating cannot be calculated.

[equusvates]

Just two more sample days for proof of concept.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by equusvates

Just two more sample days for proof of concept.

have no clue on what I'm looking at or how to use it

did you ever get stats on all the angle yet? Like roi

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

have no clue on what I'm looking at or how to use it

did you ever get stats on all the angle yet? Like roi

Have not finished creating a parser for the Equibase data. Only work on it a few hours a week. It is tedious as I like to look at every attribute in the file. Equibase states what the data types are, but I like to see for myself. There are thousands of lines to look at.

[equusvates]

OK.

Looked for a clear and easy to read race to explain the use of the graph.

5 MAY 2024, LRL R8

The pace scenario is printed in lime color text, and therefore the early horses should benefit from the projected pace. The 3 and the 7 are green and thus are expected to be front runners. The 1 and the 4 are cyan and therefore are projected to be pressers. The 6 and the 2 are dark yellow and are projected to be stalking closers. The 5 is light magenta and are projected to be trailing closer. The odds generated by the program sets the consensus with the 7 being declared the horse mostly to win the race.

Now for the graph.
The left most vertical line is the true pace of the last race each horse ran. The next vertical line is the second to last race each horse ran and so on. The top of the graph is the highest value of the true pace. In this race, the 7 horse last race has the highest value for the true pace of any horse in any paceline. The bottom of the graph is the lowest true pace value of any horse for any paceline. In this race it is the 2 horse for it second race back. The color of the lines are drawn in the background color of the horse saddlecloth.

A circle drawn for each paceline where the horse finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th. If the paceline is being used to rate the horse a square is substitutes for the circle. If a paceline is being used to rate the horse, a black square is drawn if the horse did not finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

So, for the 7 horse last race, the horse finished worst than 4th but ran a true pace rating higher than any of the other horses. The 3 horse finished 3rd in its last race. While the 1 horse finished 4th in its last race.

Each horse line across the graph are drawn 1 length apart in the true pace rating.

The light magenta line across the graph represents the expected true pace projected for this race. If a horse has never approached this line they are poor in the money candidates. I like to look for races where only 1 to 3 horses consistently stay above the projected true pace line.

You should be able to see how unreliable these horses are.

If you look at WO R8 is a stake race and the graph shows a much tighter cluster of performances.

The graph also shows where horses have trouble in a race by drawing an unfilled circle for the target paceline.

Look at WO R9, horse 1. That horse appears to be in no condition to perform well. You must go back 9 races to get a good performance from him.

Hope this helps. If you scan the DRF and just look at the varying Beyer numbers, you are seeing the same variations but seeing the forest rather than a tree.