BC Distaff

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The question is whether Songbird is a unicorn.

I'm not smart enough to know, but she has a lot of profile I look for. I'm going to take a shot against her anyway if I get the right price, but there's no way I think she's definitely overmatched because she's slower so far.

I should add that the reason I am willing to take a shot against her is not because I think she's just a high 90s or 100 horse and overmatched. It's because I think even if she's a 105 or better horse she could still lose to spectacular mares like Beholder/Stellar Wind or come under enough early pressure to succumb to one of them despite a trip adjusted lifetime best Beyer.

[Robert Fischer]

Unicorns are quite rare.


Anyway, Songbird is not that much different from how Stellar Wind came into the Distaff last year.

To me, at least.

Stellar Wind had a less forgiving running style, and a series of trips.

Stellar Wind also got to run at Keeneland against a Distaff group with a lower ceiling.

Songbird has a pretty past performance sheet.

Songbird is 8/5.

Stellar wind was 7-1 last year.

[the little guy]

Last year's Distaff was a far weaker field.

[EasyGoer89]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

We agree that these are unicorns. Even the unicorns can get beat by a better horse, a horrible trip, have a bad day, and they also go through normal ups and downs of development. But IMO the unicorns have things in common in their profile. They demonstrate things you can see that are somewhat unique despite not putting up big figures yet. The idea is to find them before they jump up.

There wasn't any revisionist history in what I said even though we will probably disagree on some of the details (as most handicappers do).

I laid out a very good case on this forum that right on the rail was bad Travers day. AP dueled on it. Several horses came off that rail and won or ran better including Pharoah and Stopchargingmaria (who had a similar trip and who I highlighted as a playback in the Distaff here). EMD4ME and I had a long conversation about the rail that day. He eventually came around to my opinion.

American Pharoah also looked weak on Beyers going into the Classic. Some people were calling him a mediocre Triple Crown winner. People realized he would be loose in the Classic and have a compensating advantage that day, but he popped a 120 to win. How many saw that?

Zenyatta had a bunch of figures in high the 90s and low 100s when everyone was trashing her and calling her overrated. She jumped way up in both of her Classic attempts. One of those was on synthetic BEFORE Beyer realized those figures were depressed and he added a few points at the top of the scale. So her number was actually even higher than a 112. The other came despite "climbing" down the stretch the first time from kickback and she still ran a 111. Her figures clearly fluctuated to the competition.

Beholder has generally been a high 90s and low 100s horse for stretches of her career with occasional jump ups in tough fields and occasional really slow figures in easy wins against dregs.

They threw her into the Pacific Classic last year and she looked overmatched on recent figures. She popped a 114 (albeit with a perfect setup). She continued a similar pattern this year until thrown into the Pacific Classic and then tested by Stellar Wind. Her figures also fluctuate to the needs of the race even when she's overmatched and loses.

Slew was a short horse against Patches. Cruguet got fired for trashing Doug Peterson after the race.

I doubt we are far apart of any of this. I just have a way less literal view of figures from a single race or when a horse is dominating and winning just about every time. IMO, there's more going on than fractions and times. It's on us to figure it out BEFORE the race so we don't bet against these unicorns over and over and watch them jump up to a new top and win again.

The question is whether Songbird is a unicorn.

I'm not smart enough to know, but she has a lot of profile I look for. I'm going to take a shot against her anyway if I get the right price, but there's no way I think she's definitely overmatched because she's slower so far.

Songbird is much better at Santa Anita and seems to have had to work harder to win on eastern tracks in NY and PA. Rewatch her SA races again she has quite a bit left in the tank and you can also see she gets over that track without even working hard, she's gliding and has a couple of gears left. Getting weight is also a bonus.

Lot of people having the advanced mindset that they're going to pull off a heroic feat and get overlaid odds on Wind or Beholder while bird is sitting up there at 4/5 with 1 minute to post. You might be able to get a normal price on songbird here, something over 1-1 and maybe closer to 2/1, lots of wise guys locked in against her, taking strong positions.

[Robert Fischer]

Last year's Distaff was certainly weaker.


If Stellar Wind was a playable overlay at 7-1 last year, in that field, Songbird would have have to at least be somewhere near that range (perhaps >9/2?), to start to become an attractive overlay.

Songbird will be 8/5 on Friday (, possibly lower, if the track appears to be especially early speed-favoring).


Defensive add for me.

[DeltaLover]

I think that this race is very simple to analyze.

There is a bad favorite and two equally bad second choices. Any potential value comes from the neither of the top three but from one of the others, who might improve drastically and score an upset.

Based on the short odds that the favorites will go off, it might be possible to spread to two or even three of the others, maintaining a good chance for a large score. Horizontals must be preferred here because the chance of one of the favorites running second ruins the value of vertical betting as a very expensive opinion can be converted to a cheap, less than 4-1 overall proposition.

My advice to bettors is to not consume their energy in micro-handicapping tasks, but to think creatively and aggressively and not limit their decisions within the rather trivial territory of classical handicapping factors and dry interpretation of speed figures.

This is one of the races that might generate a huge score assuming that you can think out of the box and have the courage to risk several betting units against the common consensus.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I think that this race is very simple to analyze.

There is a bad favorite and two equally bad second choices. Any potential value comes from the neither of the top three but from one of the others, who might improve drastically and score an upset.

Based on the short odds that the favorites will go off, it might be possible to spread to two or even three of the others, maintaining a good chance for a large score. Horizontals must be preferred here because the chance of one of the favorites running second ruins the value of vertical betting as a very expensive opinion can be converted to a cheap, less than 4-1 overall proposition.

My advice to bettors is to not consume their energy in micro-handicapping tasks, but to think creatively and aggressively and not limit their decisions within the rather trivial territory of classical handicapping factors and dry interpretation of speed figures.

This is one of the races that might generate a huge score assuming that you can think out of the box and have the courage to risk several betting units against the common consensus.

Out of the others, I think I'd lean most to Forever Unbridled, but only on the possibility it gets a little hot up front and Stellar Wind either foolishly gets involved too early (no need to in his race) or doesn't fire her A race.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Out of the others, I think I'd lean most to Forever Unbridled, but only on the possibility it gets a little hot up front and Stellar Wind either foolishly gets involved too early (no need to in his race) or doesn't fire her A race.

How about I'm A Chatterbox?

[ebcorde]

Songbird should win easy BUT her Technical numbers are not good. I believe it is because she has not been challenged to run faster.

If she finds herself out of her league, 5 other Horses can win the race.

I'm out on all BC Friday's races unless I find some really good Euros in the Juvy races. I have not looked yet. Look like Tabor rented out an entire plane for the weekend. I count 7 Horses, Maybe he knows something. The US Horses are all about the same on Friday

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

How about I'm A Chatterbox?

I have no problem with her or Curalina in that 2nd tier of horses. In most years they'd be really tough. I'm just having a tough getting past the main 3 unless something unusual happens trip wise. IMO the most likely scenario for an upset would be the pace being fast. I'm a Chatterbox and Curalina have been racing close to the pace lately. I guess I'm a Chatterbox can sit and close OK though.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Interesting side notes on Stellar Wind:

The horse itself 0-for-2 at 9 furlongs (as previously stated by others)
Trainer is 0-for-37 with Breeders' Cup starters.

Food for thought.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Even if Beholder and Stellar Wind are 5/2 and 3-1 Songbird has to not win or IMO Friday in this sequence is useless. Especially if Dortmund wins. What do we want here?!

I think the Europeans are sick of conceding the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Roly Poly, Hydrangea, and Intricately look like tough fillies. Would love to believe this but with 3 NA fillies this is a major stretch race.

Juvenile Turf I know I am not alone in thinking Good Samaritan will have to be beat? Lookin at the latest sire book this is a solid turf pedigree with a BIG fig that has closed last 2 in 28.6 and 23. Lancaster Bomber and Big Score look like the threats to me.

If the Dirt Mile is pivotal and we have to have SB lose I am stretching in the turf races. Will take alternates to the top Euros.

I have been burned by over ambition on BC Friday. Won't get crazy on a potential chalk riddled pick 4.

Anyway. This shit's great! Could barely care at my job today! And I am the boss! LOL!

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Psychotic Parakeet

Interesting side notes on Stellar Wind:

The horse itself 0-for-2 at 9 furlongs (as previously stated by others)
Trainer is 0-for-37 with Breeders' Cup starters.

Food for thought.

True, but she hasn't run any 9f races this year. Last year she was a 3YrOld, she's improved this year.
I don't see that as a factor.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Psychotic Parakeet

Interesting side notes on Stellar Wind:

The horse itself 0-for-2 at 9 furlongs (as previously stated by others)
Trainer is 0-for-37 with Breeders' Cup starters.

Food for thought.

Yeah, I'm sure Stellar Wind is thinking, "While I proved myself against Beholder the last 2 times we met, I'm supposed to lose in the Distaff because my trainer has not been successful with other horses in the BC races. Wait a minute, I'm a horse and don't even know and care less about the difference between the BC and my other races."

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Yeah, I'm sure Stellar Wind is thinking, "While I proved myself against Beholder the last 2 times we met, I'm supposed to lose in the Distaff because my trainer has not been successful with other horses in the BC races. Wait a minute, I'm a horse and don't even know and care less about the difference between the BC and my other races."

Good posting!

This kind of "stats" are good because they create overlays though.