Why do horses "bounce"?

[Zippy Chippy]

You see it all the time in sports. Maryland will beat Duke and then lose to Northeastern. The jaguars will beat the colts then lose to the Bills. A lot of it has to be mental, but it happens w horses too. Recently with

Dialed in (won 3 races ago, 2 back flopped)
Soldat
misremembered (ran ok but still lost)
brethren

It seems like its almost better coming off a loss

[Stillriledup]

Because the competition is so evenly matched that the 'effort' you need to get the job done might take a little something extra out of you that you don't have for the next time, and since the competition is so evenly matched, it only takes a small drop off to finish up the track, or to lose to a team you're supposed to beat on paper.

Also, horses who win most times will face tougher competition next time, so the increase in competition combined with the hard effort will get you beat.

In sports, its human nature to not play as hard off a win than off a loss. This is why pro playoff serieses are zig zag a lot of times, teams who win arent as urgent as the teams who lose.

[Sekrah]

Alot of it is reversion to the mean

For golfers, when you go out there and break your career low score, what happens the next time after that? You usually throw a clunker (or something much more in line with your average). It's not simple to repeat above average performances in anything. Alot of it is just variance/luck.

In racing, extremely strong performances (relative to a horses ability shown prior to that) can cause some hidden physical ailments as the horse's body had to undergo stress that is has never gone through before. Also, a horse can get a perfect relaxed trip in a comfortable spot in one race, and in the next race he can be distracted in the gate, startled by a speed horse brushing up on his flank, or any other numerous things that might throw him off his optimum racing game. I think Stay Thirsty is good looking animal capable of some great speed figures if he was out there on the track by himself, but have the speed rushing up on his outside, or a horse cut in front of him and kick some dirt in his face, all of a sudden he's average.

People would like to think these are machines that we can figure out how there going to run today by typing their past performance lines through some computer algorithm program that calculates everything. These people are wasting their time trying to find the silver bullet to solve every race.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

I think Stay Thirsty is good looking animal capable of some great speed figures if he was out there on the track by himself, but have the speed rushing up on his outside, or a horse cut in front of him and kick some dirt in his face, all of a sudden he's average.

He's average regardless of what happens in a race.

IMO bounce is way overused and is a lazy way to explain performances. Take a look at a horse like Soldat. In the FOY he had everything go his own way and ran well. He doesn't make the lead (his preference on dirt) and is empty. Did he bounce? Of course not. He just didn't get a perfect setup like he did in his prior race.

A horse is always going to run his/her best race when they have everything in their favor.

[Sekrah]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

He's average regardless of what happens in a race.

IMO bounce is way overused and is a lazy way to explain performances. Take a look at a horse like Soldat. In the FOY he had everything go his own way and ran well. He doesn't make the lead (his preference on dirt) and is empty. Did he bounce? Of course not. He just didn't get a perfect setup like he did in his prior race.

A horse is always going to run his/her best race when they have everything in their favor.

Don't completely agree or disagree with this. Horses STILL go through form cycles. They aren't always in 100% optimum condition everytime they are entered into a race, infact more than often they are far from their top condition.

If a horse has everything go their way during the race, but come up empty (far below their best), then you can very easily chalk it up to the condition they were in at race time.

[sonnyp]

i think most forget they are not machines.

they're flesh and blood and mind. they are subject to the same physical and mental peaks and valleys as each one of us.

we can tell someone "i feel like sh-t", they can't.

[letswastemoney]

I'm going to agree with Dahoss and say it has to do more with the setup.

Dialed In didn't bounce in his allowance race loss. His stablemate coasted up front and had enough left to beat Dialed In fair and square. If the fractions were a smidge faster, Dialed In would have won

[GaryG]

There is such a thing as a bounce, but a sub-par performance is more often the result of an unfavorable pace, track bias or simply being outclassed. If not for form fluctuations everyone would pick the fastest horse and head for the cashier. The pp lines must be read very carefully and critically. Each race was run under conditions that will never be repeated.