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09-05-2010, 02:52 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,572
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail
At what point does pool size become a factor (if at all). In the original post by 46, FR's plan invests $114. The Friday night WIN 4 pool at Hastings was just under $6,000
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Pool size coupled with the fact that he has AAAA for $11 makes it almost impossible that the A's could be anything but chalk. Would he have a 10-1 and 6-1 as A's? Not likely and if he did his betting structure would be that of a fool.
If he had a A in one race who was 10-1 that he thought had a great chance, his scheme is moronic because his 10-1 could win and have BBB win the other races and instead of winning the pool, he's "professionally" bet himself into getting back $0.
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09-05-2010, 03:14 PM
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#32
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,318
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Pool size coupled with the fact that he has AAAA for $11 makes it almost impossible that the A's could be anything but chalk. Would he have a 10-1 and 6-1 as A's? Not likely and if he did his betting structure would be that of a fool.
If he had a A in one race who was 10-1 that he thought had a great chance, his scheme is moronic because his 10-1 could win and have BBB win the other races and instead of winning the pool, he's "professionally" bet himself into getting back $0.
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This is a hoot...I will have to tell him of your professional assessment.
FR's top pick is NOT based on what you may or may not think so and A is not always the chalk as a recent $42.00 winner in a maiden race at Del Mar made me realize when I viewed how he uses this.
BTW he is also a consultant to a Pick 6 betting syndicate here in town and does very well. strangely, at Mountaineer
His profile is listed here; http://www.hastingspark.com/racing/h...010/jun11.aspx
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
Last edited by 46zilzal; 09-05-2010 at 03:17 PM.
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09-05-2010, 03:35 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,572
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
This is a hoot...I will have to tell him of your professional assessment.
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Great.....You ask him if having an A at 10-1 and an A at 6-1 is a strategically correct wagering strategy into a $6000 P-4 pool using his structure you posted.
Just so you might understand a little before you ask the question......
He would have $44 of his entire bet using just those 2 horses singled.
$44 to win at 10-1 is $484 and $484 to win on a 6-1 is $3388 (could be more with breakage).
So basically he would be risking at least $3388 of value in the other 2 races to......
Win nothing
Win less
Get his money back + about $1000 if his ticket is the only winner
Boy....That sounds like a great "professional" way to bet 
Last edited by InsideThePylons-MW; 09-05-2010 at 03:42 PM.
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09-05-2010, 03:38 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 539
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FAQ's
46zilzal:
Some questions for you:
1) The base Pick4.......the total cost is $113 dollars. If T1 is for one dollar only?...............
2) The meaning of A and B is subjective? Those are "the Professor A's and B's!
3) Like "B" means longshots with a chance?
4) And there is a condition with His Pick 4.......Two A's must come in for him to collect and it does not matter which leg?
5) Can you privately gave me his email.............?
Sinner
__________________
Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!
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09-05-2010, 03:41 PM
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#35
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,318
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Great.....You ask him if having an A at 10-1 and an A at 6-1 is a strategically correct wagering strategy into a $6000 P-4 pool using his structure you posted.
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He would be the last person on earth to risk big for a small return....I don't know where you get the assumption that this fellow would risk that investment for that small a return.....This fellow is the polar opposite to that.
This scenario was one we discussed as a starting point in order to cover if lower horses dominate. It is not written in stone and is applied when it is worth it...Bringing up a single incidence when a pool was small is ridiculous.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
Last edited by 46zilzal; 09-05-2010 at 03:49 PM.
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09-05-2010, 03:48 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,572
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
He would be the last person on earth to risk big for a small return....I don't know wher you get the assumption that this fellow would risk that investment for that small a return.....This fellow is the polar opposite to that.
Bringing up a single incidence when a pool was small is ridiculous.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail
At what point does pool size become a factor (if at all). In the original post by 46, FR's plan invests $114. The Friday night WIN 4 pool at Hastings was just under $6,000
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He's the professor at Hastings.
Hastings has P-4 pool of $6000.
I guess I was supposed to know or somehow figure out that this guy is some betting syndicate leader/advisor that has a humanitarian job helping newbies bet on the P-6 at Mountaineer where the pool is $2000 after a 3 week carryover.
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09-05-2010, 03:51 PM
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#37
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,318
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
He's the professor at Hastings.
I guess I was supposed to know or somehow figure out that this guy is some betting syndicate leader/advisor that has a humanitarian job helping newbies bet on the P-6 at Mountaineer where the pool is $2000 after a 3 week carryover.
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He is hardly a total humanitarian although he is very generous with this time and experience. He is paid obviously, and, if you spoke to him for 4 minutes you would realize how very selective his wagers are.
I mentioned who he is many times during this thread.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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09-05-2010, 04:09 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Anaheim,California
Posts: 4,675
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by markgoldie
You are trapped by the races that are designated as part of the gimmick.
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Not at all. The quick and easy solution is to pass. If, in a pick 3, you have a standout single but the other two legs are total blurs, just not betting is the wise course. Happens all the time, in fact, at tracks that offer the rolling triples, usually do not find more than one or two worth betting. Learned the hard way that if I spread more than one race in the sequence I really have no opinion, and am actually just guessing.
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09-05-2010, 05:40 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,520
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
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BTW he is also a consultant to a Pick 6 betting syndicate here in town and does very well. strangely, at Mountaineer.
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A Pick 6 betting syndicate at Mountaineer, and he's the consultant?
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09-05-2010, 06:03 PM
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#40
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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[QUOTE=InsideThePylons-MW]
I guess I was supposed to know or somehow figure out that this guy is some betting syndicate leader/advisor that has a humanitarian job helping newbies bet on the P-6 at Mountaineer where the pool is $2000 after a 3 week carryover.[/QUOTE]
So are you saying it's unwise to bet into a Pick Six pool of $2k? Zilly - what does the good professor have to say?
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09-05-2010, 06:12 PM
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#41
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,318
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by garyscpa
A Pick 6 betting syndicate at Mountaineer, and he's the consultant? |
I said a consultant to a syndicate that often bets Mountaineer
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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09-05-2010, 06:14 PM
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#42
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
I said a consultant to a syndicate that often bets Mountaineer
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What is the MNR synidicate betting, if not the Pick 6?
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09-05-2010, 06:15 PM
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#43
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,318
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[QUOTE=Saratoga_Mike]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
I guess I was supposed to know or somehow figure out that this guy is some betting syndicate leader/advisor that has a humanitarian job helping newbies bet on the P-6 at Mountaineer where the pool is $2000 after a 3 week carryover.[/QUOTE]
So are you saying it's unwise to bet into a Pick Six pool of $2k? Zilly - what does the good professor have to say?
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I never bet horizontally and we do not offer pick 6 here
I can't answer of him.......
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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09-05-2010, 06:17 PM
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#44
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,318
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
What is the MNR synidicate betting, if not the Pick 6?
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The SYNDICATE bets many tracks in many ways I am told
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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09-05-2010, 06:27 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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I'll keep this simple.
Betting horizontal exotics is ABSOLUTELY the way to go for me, b/c it allows the unique opportunity to hedge and virtually guarantee a profit if you make it to the pay-off leg with several well-paying options that you can bet against for a self-induced "conso" return. Only 1 can win, and 1 HAS to win every single time.
Just my admittedly-amateur 2 cents on the unique benefits of horizontal exotics.
__________________
I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5 
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