Beyer talks Trakus

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

This is true.

Extra Distance run(ground loss) is also a factor where the value of ground loss is NOT a constant.

If you want to compare two horses from the same race who ran pretty much the same race type, and they were in similar positions and made similar moves - then by all means consider ground loss.

However differences in running style during the race in question will distort the value of ground loss in comparisons so much that without the ability to understand and apply the dynamics and race shape to an individual horse's ground loss, the factor actually becomes worthless and even harmful.

for example; many trainers like to fire their charges from outside posts

and even though many of these lose ground stalking; they outrun their foes who run less ground many times

the 2 reasons for me that this occurs are that: 1.) most horses hate being pressed - better to be the presser that loses lengths 2.) many horses don't run well being covered up - better to lose lengths being outside of horses than lose momentum or interest

having said the above i enjoy betting horses who lost alot of ground from any post - i just enjoy the inside ( flat ) to outside ( live ) game

fffastt

[BIG49010]

Originally Posted by cj

You can view SOME of the data, not ALL the data.

What do you think is missing between the track data provided and the Trakus site?

[098poi]

I interviewed to work at their facility in Mass a few years ago. It was shift work monitoring races at the tracks that were running. I needed a full time job and this was part time so I didn't do it.

When you think about how crucial accurate data is for the handicapper it is amazing the industry is only recently catching up with the rest of the world. When you think that horses can run a mile at different paces and hit an exact point, the finish line, and be noses apart it makes sense you need accurate reliable data. The notion that Trakus exists and yet does not make their data available to the public seems odd. I checked the Gulfstream site and am impressed with what is available. Check this link and you can watch simulated Jockey, Side and Aerial views. The Aerial view looks like it would be very helpful for those who use replays as part of their handicapping.
http://tnetwork.trakus.com/dsi2007/G...ultPage=Finish

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse

for example; many trainers like to fire their charges from outside posts

and even though many of these lose ground stalking; they outrun their foes who run less ground many times

the 2 reasons for me that this occurs are that: 1.) most horses hate being pressed - better to be the presser that loses lengths 2.) many horses don't run well being covered up - better to lose lengths being outside of horses than lose momentum or interest

having said the above i enjoy betting horses who lost alot of ground from any post - i just enjoy the inside ( flat ) to outside ( live ) game

fffastt

Well an outside post can range from an average post at times, to a do-or-die situation! Some of these tracks = if you can't tuck in or make the lead from out wide, it REALLY costs the horse.

Lets say your horse "FFFastt" breaks from post #13 goes 5 wide into the first turn and presses the pace in 2nd the rest of the way...
Lets also go ahead and say my horse "BobsPlodder" and others make a final-turn run as the speed is collapsing. These Slow Horses go 5-wide on the 2ND TURN.

Trakus ranks them as equal ground loss. However FFFASTT went wide and lost ground into the teeth of a fast early pace(and apparently gamely held on)! The Plodders came up last closing together as a group after the race collapsed.

The value of groundloss for these two examples is not equal in spite of the Delta Feet data being equal.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Well an outside post can range from an average post at times, to a do-or-die situation! Some of these tracks = if you can't tuck in or make the lead from out wide, it REALLY costs the horse.

Lets say your horse "FFFastt" breaks from post #13 goes 5 wide into the first turn and presses the pace in 2nd the rest of the way...
Lets also go ahead and say my horse "BobsPlodder" and others make a final-turn run as the speed is collapsing. These Slow Horses go 5-wide on the 2ND TURN.

Trakus ranks them as equal ground loss. However FFFASTT went wide and lost ground into the teeth of a fast early pace(and apparently gamely held on)! The Plodders came up last closing together as a group after the race collapsed.

The value of groundloss for these two examples is not equal in spite of the Delta Feet data being equal.

is the value of a closer over-inflated because the presser duelled into the teeth of the pace??

fffastt

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse

is the value of a closer over-inflated because the presser duelled into the teeth of the pace??

fffastt

Sure. If we are talking about a race where multiple horses were closing late to make up ground. The presser can be upgraded, and there is a fair chance to downgrade the closer.

The opposite kind of thing is true when the speed goes 1-2 all the way around and nobody closes. These are harder to see, but a good tip-off is when a horse or two that is a known quitter, who hasn't taken a ton of money somehow doesn't tire and contends for the win.

With both examples of race types above, I look for maidens or horses facing winners for the first time. With this crowd if there is a "downgrade" (like the plodder from the first example who got up for 2nd or whatever), they are often OVER-Bet by the public.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure what all the fuss is about Trakus (other than more accurate beaten lengths at the pace calls). Handicappers that are interested in ground loss being incorporated into their figures have been able to purchase that from either Thorograph or Ragozin for decades. Both do a great job.

The arguments against ground loss remain the same (Beyer has even made them at times).

1. Some horses run better on the outside than inside.

2. There are sometimes path biases that make the outside paths equal or even better than the inside paths

3. There are sometimes path biases that are not uniform around the track

4. Losing ground while the pace is very slow has a much different impact than losing ground when it's moderate or fast.

5. The banking of turns in dirt racing may mitigate some of the disadvantage of ground loss

6. The impact of losing ground on sweeping turns like Belmont is probably different than losing ground on a 1m track with sharp turns

Everyone has their own style and beliefs on this issue, but IMO you have watch all the races develop on a particular day (and the race in question) and look at fractions and quality of competition to try to understand how a track was playing so you can understand a horse's performance.

I'm not sure given all the complexities that knowing a horse ran an extra 20 feet or 30 feet is going to give you much, if any, edge. IMO you have to get the big picture right.

To be clear, I'm not anti Trackus. I just think there's a better chance that some handicappers will find edges based on other people worshiping the ground loss information than using it because TG and Sheets players already have it and already bet heavily.

[cj]

Originally Posted by BIG49010

What do you think is missing between the track data provided and the Trakus site?

How about timing including the run up, for one. There is a lot not given to the public yet.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not sure what all the fuss is about Trakus (other than more accurate beaten lengths at the pace calls). Handicappers that are interested in ground loss being incorporated into their figures have been able to purchase that from either Thorograph or Ragozin for decades. Both do a great job.

Lets not act like your average weekend handicapper is shelling out tons of money for PPs. Hell, I'm interested in ground loss, but I'm not THAT interested.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Lets not act like your average weekend handicapper is shelling out tons of money for PPs. Hell, I'm interested in ground loss, but I'm not THAT interested.

I agree with that. I occasionally purchase Ragozin, but only if my betting volume is likely to be very high or I have a high intellectual curiosity about their numbers (BC day, Derby, BC prep days etc..)

I just envision a scenario where a lot of people are going to stop watching races altogether because they are going to use Trakus ground loss info as a short cut and others are going to use it and it's going to lead them astray.

Take the Donn yesterday. I'm way more interested in whether the inside paths were a little off than whether some of the horses that lost ground lost 25 or 35, or 45 feet.

[BIG49010]

[QUOTE=cj]How about timing including the run up, for one. There is a lot not given to the public yet.[/QUOTE

I don't think that it is recorded anywhere, it's not being withheld from the public.

As time goes by and people request that info, or when Trakus believes that it is important, perhaps they will include it in the reports that are on-line.

[cj]

[QUOTE=BIG49010]

Originally Posted by cj

How about timing including the run up, for one. There is a lot not given to the public yet.[/QUOTE

I don't think that it is recorded anywhere, it's not being withheld from the public.

As time goes by and people request that info, or when Trakus believes that it is important, perhaps they will include it in the reports that are on-line.

It is, that is why I posted it. I have seen everything that is available.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Sure. If we are talking about a race where multiple horses were closing late to make up ground. The presser can be upgraded, and there is a fair chance to downgrade the closer.

The opposite kind of thing is true when the speed goes 1-2 all the way around and nobody closes. These are harder to see, but a good tip-off is when a horse or two that is a known quitter, who hasn't taken a ton of money somehow doesn't tire and contends for the win.

With both examples of race types above, I look for maidens or horses facing winners for the first time. With this crowd if there is a "downgrade" (like the plodder from the first example who got up for 2nd or whatever), they are often OVER-Bet by the public.

i know Robert - i luv betting recent Maidens breakers against winners for the first time too - especially in Florida - for one thing, like you alluded to, the class jump isn't that ominous

also, i like maidens that rise in class in the maiden ranks in California - they outrun their odds

back to closers, i've believe that it's dangerous to underrate a closer - actually, any move during any point of the race should be respected - the front runner still has to rate if he wants to hold off it's foes - but you already said that

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by cj

Lets not act like your average weekend handicapper is shelling out tons of money for PPs. Hell, I'm interested in ground loss, but I'm not THAT interested.

Personally, ground lost is one of my bigger weapons

i know u hav your own measurements, and u will probably agree, but 1-wide on a turn is not insignificant ground lost

fffastt

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

whether the inside paths were a little off

In general pace and dynamics of a race has much more affect on what part of the track horses will run.