Sierra Leone

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

The setup of a race is what it is. It doesn't change after horses in a given race have run back. A good or excellent run is just that. Of course, you need to qualify the 'snapshot' for trouble and ground loss.

I agree with you, but when you aren't sure how the race flow impacted the race, the subsequent performances can clarify it.

Let's take the Bluegrass as the example.

If I understood your earlier post in the thread, you think Sierra Leone ran very well because the speed horses did not collapse and he was the only closer to run really well late.

I'm fine with that conclusion, but let's look at another.

The race was loaded with speed, projected to have a fast pace, and the fractions and pace figures (via TimeformUS) were really fast. TimeformUS upgraded most of the horses on or near the lead that day and says Just a Touch ran the best race on their figures.

I'm fine with that conclusion also.

The problem is they are completely opposite conclusions.

Here's my trip notes for the race (not individual horses).

RF-H/CL?; (lot of speed; fast fractions; but flow more honest); PressPts: 21.2 Speeds: 4 Chart: 0.09 Class: 98.61 Beyer Par: 96.2

Forget what that all means, but you can see I have the RF (race flow) as H/CL? That means I'm not 100% sure whether the race flow favored closers or was more honest. Either all those horses on/near the lead ran quite well overcoming those fast fractions and hanging around well or the fast pace I projected and those fast fractions that verify it didn't have the impact on them you'd normally expect.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Forget what that all means, but you can see I have the RF (race flow) as H/CL? That means I'm not 100% sure whether the race flow favored closers or was more honest. Either all those horses on/near the lead ran quite well overcoming those fast fractions and hanging around well or the fast pace I projected and those fast fractions that verify it didn't have the impact on them you'd normally expect.

Just a Touch ran an angle that's proven to be quite fruitful over the years. But Sierra Leone just stands out.

See for yourself. Plot it. Transpose (to row orientation) and set the y-axis max to 16 (for the best possible effect). The lengths are from GPS data and have been converted at .165.

Comma delimited.

Horse,1LC,2LC,3LC,4LC,5LC,6LC,7LC,8LC,FLC
Sierra Leone,8.12121212121212,7.818181818181834,7.8787878 78787861,8.848484848484853,7.757575757575721,7.454 545454545478,5.757575757575775,2.484848484848464,0 .0
Just a Touch,0.6666666666666632,1.1515151515151592,1.2121 212121211862,1.1515151515151807,1.0303030303029976 ,1.3333333333333264,1.2727272727272347,0.0,1.69696 96969697037
Epic Ride,1.1515151515151485,1.5151515151515151,2.24242 42424242267,1.939393939393941,1.6969696969696608,2 .2424242424242697,1.5757575757575206,1.63636363636 36123,5.757575757575775
Dornoch,0.6666666666666632,0.9090909090909219,1.45 45454545454235,1.3333333333333695,1.51515151515151 51,2.060606060606081,2.181818181818178,2.727272727 2726582,7.090909090909101
Mugatu,7.818181818181813,8.484848484848497,8.30303 0303030287,9.09090909090909,6.606060606060583,5.57 5757575757586,4.848484848484831,4.666666666666642, 8.12121212121214
Top Conor,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.72727272727275 48,8.666666666666622
Seize the Grey,3.878787878787882,4.484848484848497,5.5151515 15151494,5.818181818181823,6.303030303030297,8.545 454545454524,9.87878787878785,11.63636363636356,11 .57575757575764
Be You,3.9393939393939412,3.6363636363636447,3.939393 9393939306,4.06060606060607,4.1818181818181674,4.8 48484848484831,5.939393939393963,8.42424242424234, 11.818181818181834
Lat Long,4.727272727272723,4.545454545454545,4.6060606 06060594,6.303030303030341,8.242424242424239,10.48 484848484851,11.33333333333336,12.242424242424217, 15.030303030303054
Good Money,1.6363636363636338,2.6666666666666745,3.6969 696969696932,5.15151515151516,7.15151515151515,13. 393939393939355,19.7575757575757,25.87878787878785 4,41.99999999999995

[classhandicapper]

I can see what you are saying.

I agree that Sierra Leone's performance looks like a standout effort based on the flow of the race as measured this way. My issue is that this doesn't address how the fast fractions/pace may have impacted the horses up front that he closed down or the possibility that the other off the pace horses were just bad that day and that's what makes him look so good relative to them.

I want to be clear that I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying I'm not sure.

To make the point another way, I just listened to a podcast with two horseplayers I consider among the sharpest out there. Both said Sierra Leone got a perfect pace setup in the Blue Grass.

I see both perspectives.

I sort of lean to the race being more or less honestly run, but I will be watching how well Top Conor runs.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Just a Touch ran an angle that's proven to be quite fruitful over the years. But Sierra Leone just stands out.

See for yourself. Plot it. Transpose (to row orientation) and set the y-axis max to 16 (for the best possible effect). The lengths are from GPS data and have been converted at .165.

Comma delimited.

Horse,1LC,2LC,3LC,4LC,5LC,6LC,7LC,8LC,FLC
Sierra Leone,8.12121212121212,7.818181818181834,7.8787878 78787861,8.848484848484853,7.757575757575721,7.454 545454545478,5.757575757575775,2.484848484848464,0 .0
Just a Touch,0.6666666666666632,1.1515151515151592,1.2121 212121211862,1.1515151515151807,1.0303030303029976 ,1.3333333333333264,1.2727272727272347,0.0,1.69696 96969697037
Epic Ride,1.1515151515151485,1.5151515151515151,2.24242 42424242267,1.939393939393941,1.6969696969696608,2 .2424242424242697,1.5757575757575206,1.63636363636 36123,5.757575757575775
Dornoch,0.6666666666666632,0.9090909090909219,1.45 45454545454235,1.3333333333333695,1.51515151515151 51,2.060606060606081,2.181818181818178,2.727272727 2726582,7.090909090909101
Mugatu,7.818181818181813,8.484848484848497,8.30303 0303030287,9.09090909090909,6.606060606060583,5.57 5757575757586,4.848484848484831,4.666666666666642, 8.12121212121214
Top Conor,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.72727272727275 48,8.666666666666622
Seize the Grey,3.878787878787882,4.484848484848497,5.5151515 15151494,5.818181818181823,6.303030303030297,8.545 454545454524,9.87878787878785,11.63636363636356,11 .57575757575764
Be You,3.9393939393939412,3.6363636363636447,3.939393 9393939306,4.06060606060607,4.1818181818181674,4.8 48484848484831,5.939393939393963,8.42424242424234, 11.818181818181834
Lat Long,4.727272727272723,4.545454545454545,4.6060606 06060594,6.303030303030341,8.242424242424239,10.48 484848484851,11.33333333333336,12.242424242424217, 15.030303030303054
Good Money,1.6363636363636338,2.6666666666666745,3.6969 696969696932,5.15151515151516,7.15151515151515,13. 393939393939355,19.7575757575757,25.87878787878785 4,41.99999999999995

I like your thought process in looking to magnify the horse that stands out vs the flow of the race. The issue I have with it is there's a lot of missing information that would add context, for example what if some other horse had closed nearly as well as the winner. Is it now seen as an honest race or still biased to the front in your opinion? I get it, nobody else closed so it's a non-issue, the problem is who else was supposed to close? The only other two sustained runners were Seize the Grey and Mugatu and those two aren't even legit grade three types let alone Grade one. Horses that are way overmatched like that may get overextended trying to keep pace with better horses at various intervals or just simply don't show up on condition. Again the overall idea is good IMO and I have done similar in the past but I don't know how this competes with anyone who brings context to the table, unless like I said you're just flagging horses for follow up (race watching) where you can then bring the necessary context later by examining the quality of the other horses and/or the evidence of the internal fractions.