BC Distaff

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Meaningless numbers formed by small samples certainly do lie.

Remember Exaggerator wasn't supposed to win the Preakness, because he finished second in the Derby.

It good when you have people believing in this kind of ridiculous "stats" they tend to create huge overlays based on their fallacious views.

The main reason why the game is so good and presents such a huge potential for profitability, lies in the fact that the vast majority of the betting crowd tries to interpret "numbers" without having the related skills, arriving to some very wrong conclusions.

Its a lot like a layman who believes that he will improve as a musician if he starts using a Stradivarius!

[classhandicapper]

I haven't looked at everyone's speed figures, but on Beyer figures Songbird looks too slow against Beholder and Stellar Wind. I'm not buying that basic analysis. She may have run slower, but the way she has been winning and drawing off in the stretch leads me to believe there's more in the tank.

When a horse is winning that easily one of 2 things happens when it finally gets tested against much better.

1. It gets exposed (most horses)

2. It shows it has more in the tank and runs a higher figure than it typically runs (you can even see that in Beholder's PPs when she faced boys and Stellar last time).

I think Songbird falls into the 2nd category.

I'm more concerned that even if she runs a new lifetime top, she's going to have to repel what should certainly be a serious bid from Beholder (a great mare) and if successful, then repel a serious bid from Stellar Wind (developing into another great mare). If she can do all that, it's time to build a statue.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Arrogate is a huge wildcard.

If it was anyone other than Bob Baffert, Charlie Whittingham, or a few other trainers I'd toss him. But I think Baffert is so good at freshening horses and training them up to a peak at the right time, there has to be a decent chance he's going to run a similar quality race. Maybe he won't run the same exact figure against such a tough field (that last one was really extreme), but another big one.

So it becomes a math problem.

Probability of running another big one x probability of winning if he does.

Chrome is simpler. He's almost certainly going to run really well again.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I haven't looked at everyone's speed figures, but on Beyer figures Songbird looks too slow against Beholder and Stellar Wind. I'm not buying that basic analysis. She may have run slower, but the way she has been winning and drawing off in the stretch leads me to believe there's more in the tank.

When a horse is winning that easily one of 2 things happens when it finally gets tested against much better.

1. It gets exposed (most horses)

2. It shows it has more in the tank and runs a higher figure than it typically runs (you can even see that in Beholder's PPs when she faced boys and Stellar last time).

I think Songbird falls into the 2nd category.

I'm glad you brought up the fact that Songbird's speed figures are not as good as Stellar Wind's and Beholder's, which is the best way to compare horses who have never met or have competed at different class levels.
In one of his books, Beyer debunks the notion that horses that win by large margins must have a lot left in the tank. That is rarely the case when these horses step up against tougher company.
I'm not saying that Songbird can't step up against more mature mares but I wouldn't bet on it. Especially at her expected short odds.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

In one of his books, Beyer debunks the notion that horses that win by large margins must have a lot left in the tank. That is rarely the case when these horses step up against tougher company.
I'm not saying that Songbird can't step up against more mature mares but I wouldn't bet on it. Especially at her expected short odds.

Most don't. Some clearly do. The trick is figuring out which one the horse is beforehand. I think Songbird is one that can, but she faces a tough task in beating 2 other great mares and trip-wise even if she can.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I haven't looked at everyone's speed figures, but on Beyer figures Songbird looks too slow against Beholder and Stellar Wind. I'm not buying that basic analysis. She may have run slower, but the way she has been winning and drawing off in the stretch leads me to believe there's more in the tank.

When a horse is winning that easily one of 2 things happens when it finally gets tested against much better.

1. It gets exposed (most horses)

2. It shows it has more in the tank and runs a higher figure than it typically runs (you can even see that in Beholder's PPs when she faced boys and Stellar last time).

I think Songbird falls into the 2nd category.

I'm more concerned that even if she runs a new lifetime top, she's going to have to repel what should certainly be a serious bid from Beholder (a great mare) and if successful, then repel a serious bid from Stellar Wind (developing into another great mare). If she can do all that, it's time to build a statue.

Class, I wonder why you would put Songbird into the 2nd category without evidence that contradicts your own reasoning that she is more likely to fall into category 1.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I'm ..... Especially at her expected short odds.

All three will have short odds.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I'm not saying that Songbird can't step up against more mature mares but I wouldn't bet on it. Especially at her expected short odds.

I think that has changed over the years. Trainers have bought into the saving something for next out and harp on it with jockeys. It is much more prevalent than in past years. I'm not saying Songbird is a good bet, but I think in her case she definitely could have run a few lengths faster several times and could be "on par" speed figure wise with the others if asked. There are a lot of examples of this happening with other top horses the past decade.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cj

I think that has changed over the years. Trainers have bought into the saving something for next out and harp on it with jockeys. It is much more prevalent than in past years. I'm not saying Songbird is a good bet, but I think in her case she definitely could have run a few lengths faster several times and could be "on par" speed figure wise with the others if asked. There are a lot of examples of this happening with other top horses the past decade.

I think that what you are saying here is correct.

SB will probably be the most frequent winner when facing older mares but she will also represent a very poor bet. She will become an underlay possibly pushing some value on some of her rivals.

Even in this case, I still do not see either BH or even SW as great overlays.

If there will be any value in this race, it will be coming from some other horse that might improve and upset them, otherwise I cannot see this race as not a good betting event.

[Spalding No!]

Stellar Wind has a major hole in her form in that she rarely races with less than 2 months between starts. The last time she raced within 5 weeks of her previous start, she lost the Kentucky Oaks. When it was all said and done last year, she was a fairly weak 3yo champion. Clearly, she has matured this year with surprisingly careful handling from her connections, but she will have to be able to maintain under much more difficult circumstances. This will easily be the toughest field she has faced and the relatively quick turnaround does not instill confidence.

Beholder has been hindered in her two starts against Stellar Wind by having to adopt a front-running style. I presume most think of Beholder as a frontrunner given her early career, but like Stellar Wind (and hopefully Songbird next year), she clearly matured as an older mare. The last time Beholder won a race wire-to-wire was as a 3yo in the 2013 Zenyatta Stakes. She will almost certainly adopt a stalking position in the Distaff given Gary Stevens lament at finding himself on the lead last out and so will have an opportunity of showing that she hasn't lost a step. Two other mares, Paseana in 1992 and Escena in 1998 were terrorizing the Distaff division during the majority of the year, tailed off a bit in their final 2 starts before the BC, then returned to form on the big day, both offering a generous 3-1 (given that they were typically odds-on in their other starts).

Songbird might step up or might even get the run of the race if Beholder takes back and no one else offers an early challenge. However, win or lose in the Distaff, I'm more interested in next year. Despite shipping East 3 times she has not hooked herself into grueling battles as a 3yo like some other dominant 3yo fillies in prior years (Blind Luck, Silverbulletday, Rachel Alexandra) and the illness that knocked her out of the Kentucky Oaks might have been a blessing in disguise. If she matures like the two top older mares, we might see something special in 2017.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Stellar Wind has a major hole in her form in that she rarely races with less than 2 months between starts. The last time she raced within 5 weeks of her previous start, she lost the Kentucky Oaks. When it was all said and done last year, she was a fairly weak 3yo champion. Clearly, she has matured this year with surprisingly careful handling from her connections, but she will have to be able to maintain under much more difficult circumstances. This will easily be the toughest field she has faced and the relatively quick turnaround does not instill confidence.

Beholder has been hindered in her two starts against Stellar Wind by having to adopt a front-running style. I presume most think of Beholder as a frontrunner given her early career, but like Stellar Wind (and hopefully Songbird next year), she clearly matured as an older mare. The last time Beholder won a race wire-to-wire was as a 3yo in the 2013 Zenyatta Stakes. She will almost certainly adopt a stalking position in the Distaff given Gary Stevens lament at finding himself on the lead last out and so will have an opportunity of showing that she hasn't lost a step. Two other mares, Paseana in 1992 and Escena in 1998 were terrorizing the Distaff division during the majority of the year, tailed off a bit in their final 2 starts before the BC, then returned to form on the big day, both offering a generous 3-1 (given that they were typically odds-on in their other starts).

Songbird might step up or might even get the run of the race if Beholder takes back and no one else offers an early challenge. However, win or lose in the Distaff, I'm more interested in next year. Despite shipping East 3 times she has not hooked herself into grueling battles as a 3yo like some other dominant 3yo fillies in prior years (Blind Luck, Silverbulletday, Rachel Alexandra) and the illness that knocked her out of the Kentucky Oaks might have been a blessing in disguise. If she matures like the two top older mares, we might see something special in 2017.

Don't disagree with any of this, but I think Stellar Wind's effort in the Oaks had more to do with shipping than with race spacing. For whatever reason her trainer is dreadful outside of California. Maybe it was the spacing, but I lean towards the latter.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

I think that has changed over the years. Trainers have bought into the saving something for next out and harp on it with jockeys. It is much more prevalent than in past years. I'm not saying Songbird is a good bet, but I think in her case she definitely could have run a few lengths faster several times and could be "on par" speed figure wise with the others if asked. There are a lot of examples of this happening with other top horses the past decade.

Nothing against Songbird, I even started a thread on her and how moved I was that she was named after the late Eva Cassidy. However, while some horses are able to run faster when pressed, this does not happen as often as many people think. Songbird could have possibly run faster or not but looking at her races she was not being eased in her finishes to the extent that her figures would match those of Stellar Wind and Beholder.
Maybe some horses have improved dramatically despite going up in class in the last decade, but this is not a trend to count on.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by cj

I think that has changed over the years. Trainers have bought into the saving something for next out and harp on it with jockeys. It is much more prevalent than in past years. I'm not saying Songbird is a good bet, but I think in her case she definitely could have run a few lengths faster several times and could be "on par" speed figure wise with the others if asked. There are a lot of examples of this happening with other top horses the past decade.

I don't completely disagree with this sentiment, but doesn't the rather ordinary figure she earned in winning the Alabama when pretty near fully extended make you skeptical? I suppose the 10 furlong distance there is a mitigating factor, it just makes me wonder how much more is there. Will be an interesting spot to find out!

[cj]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't completely disagree with this sentiment, but doesn't the rather ordinary figure she earned in winning the Alabama when pretty near fully extended make you skeptical? I suppose the 10 furlong distance there is a mitigating factor, it just makes me wonder how much more is there. Will be an interesting spot to find out!

My thoughts exactly to be honest. She didn't really run faster when given the chance, but it could be the distance. This is what we have for her at TimeformUS this year.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

My thoughts exactly to be honest. She didn't really run faster when given the chance, but it could be the distance. This is what we have for her at TimeformUS this year.

How do these figures compare to those for Stellar Wind and Beholder?