Ray Taulbot Selections

[equusvates]

This is a test. Never posted selections before. Races are from Friday, March 19th, 2021. Will post for races this Saturday if I know what I am doing. Entries are listed in order of preference.

In an earlier post I stated how well some of the Ray Taulbot angles performed. So take this as an ongoing proof of concept.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by equusvates

This is a test. Never posted selections before. Races are from Friday, March 19th, 2021. Will post for races this Saturday if I know what I am doing. Entries are listed in order of preference.

In an earlier post I stated how well some of the Ray Taulbot angles performed. So take this as an ongoing proof of concept.

Love stuff like this...thx for starting it

Heres what I see....

Using many angles causes "horses overload" , just like in your example..

More than a few has an angle play...So which do you use?

Even with a data base , it gets hard when you need to look at more than

one horses paceline....

I believe best thing to do is choose one or 2 angles and test it forward...

In those 2 cards , it looks like "Speed" gave you a few priced horses..

What do you think?

[P.Rosa]

Why March 19th, 2021?

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

Why March 19th, 2021?

Just a past day in my database and there were only 2 tracks that day. There are many more tracks for other days. This just shows the possibilities. Just by coincidence, I did not consider this a good day. I embellished farther into the night, so here one more day. I didn't cherry pick that day. The attached one below is just the first day in my database. The database is made up of Brisnet data files. I use my own pace numbers and not Brisnet's.

The Pace Scenario is based solely on running styles. The program ranks the horse in preference to running styles. The horse may be in terrible form / condition, outclassed, trainer / jockey?. You get the point.

[equusvates]

At times you can get some very nice prices. As surely know, early speed is dangerous. The problem is finding who "will" get the lead? Lone closer in high pressure too. Will add another day later tonight.

[equusvates]

I will post 1 or more days with more tracks each day. In this, hopefully you will see which angle is more indicative of a good upcoming performance. I am sure you have your own angles and these my provide a not this one, but that one decision. The program odds line use Ray Taulbot angles with pace, jockey and race structure in creation of the odds line.

[equusvates]

It appears that this thread has turned into a pace thread rather than a Ray Taulbot thread. Well, whatever. I have added a few more angles to either give clarity or more confusion. I still heavily use the Taulbot's angles but I have added Quirin's angles that I was prompted to use by an article or video by Dave Schartz some years ago. I also added the "FULCRUM" angle by Pizzolla and he clearly explain it a video titled something like, Stop Betting Slow Horses. Those angles I consider are clearly public, so I am not giving away the keys to the kingdom.

In closing, I use a rule engine that combines these and many more angles to create the "PROGRAM" odds line.

If anyone is interested I can post rankings created from Monte Carlo Simulations. Monte Carlo Simulations has the benefit of you being completely ignorant of the underlying model, but you have good data to provide. The drawback is you must have a number of clean races to provide. I use pace ratings but any good number which ranks the horses will do. YouTube has videos demonstrating Monte Carlo Simulations in horse racing, medicine and financial markets.

[equusvates]

Okay, enough redboarding.

Saturday, 27 APRIL 2024

Warning. Only program scratches have been removed from selections. Will repost sometime tomorrow with late scratches. Since the program is a pace program, scratches may change the pace scenario and or program odds.

Monte Carlo just for giggles.

Added a few more angles. Above stated with so many angles, how do you make a selection. For me it's easy. I've been looking at this stuff for years. But as most know, price and as Pizzolla stated, look for angles that are clustering among one or a few horses. After viewing the selections and the angles over hundreds of races, you should get a feel for what looks good. Of course you have your own insight and a displayed angle may make the choice easier.

[equusvates]

I am not trying to add confusion and an angle I love and added is "preferred quadrant". For anyone familiar with OptixEq, the attached graphic may look familiar. I actually created the grid for somew friends at Holywood Park that could not grasp what I was saying about early / late. This was back in about 2003. The grid has no relationship to OptixEq, it just looks similar in appearance. Briefly, the horizontal axis is early speed while the vertical axis is late speed. The shape of the horse's icon is the running style and the size of the icon is related to the relative class of the horse. I state "speed" but they are actually pace numbers. A green box is placed around the quadrant that the expected in the money horse is to come from. This example was cherry picked for the sack of clarity. The grid is not normally so clear. Good luck a Saturday to those who dare and not.

[equusvates]

Just like Columbo, one more thing.

I thought it would be implicitly clear, that the Monte Carlo Simulation attempts to give the odds of each horse finishing in each position.

And, the grid is from 6 Apr 2019, Aqu R7. Finished, 8 3 5 1 4 2 7

[equusvates]

And one more thing. Screwed up the morning line odds. So there.

[equusvates]

At the risk of boring some, I created this graph for a guy at Los Alamitos who could not believe how unpredictable a horse's next performance will be. As Pizzolla said, the best indication of a horse's condition, is it's last race unless it is not. Again, the graph displays each paceline final, true, pace number for each race. I displayed it for him in DRF numbers, my pace number and Pizzolla numbers. My program attempts to pick a paceline to rate the horse. The program needs a very good reason to go past the last race.

I am sharing so you can do the same and see for yourself. This can be done in Excel.

[equusvates]

Cheap horses, more volatility.

Finish: 7 6 4 3 1 5 2

[equusvates]

WQ = WORKOUTS QUALITY

Higher the number, the better the workouts.

Range: -2.0 to 7.0+

Cheap horses with WQ > 3.0 are good prospects.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Love stuff like this...thx for starting it

Heres what I see....

Using many angles causes "horses overload" , just like in your example..

More than a few has an angle play...So which do you use?

Even with a data base , it gets hard when you need to look at more than

one horses paceline....

I believe best thing to do is choose one or 2 angles and test it forward...

In those 2 cards , it looks like "Speed" gave you a few priced horses..

What do you think?

To get good at interpreting the angles / scenario just takes time. On my screen I color code the angles and display negatives angles too. With the color coding, it makes they rankings more visually clear. The angles are solid but no single angle defines a race. I have tens of thousands of races to verify the angles. Also, I show wire to wire horses and speed of speed horses as different angles because they are. Wire horses have at least two lengths at the first call. Speed horse have an advantage but less than two lengths. As can be seen by the rankings, some of these speedters are expected to die in the stretch. But how many times have we seen the jockeys let some 50/1 go out and get eight or more lengths on the field. As they say, sometimes those beast get brave and keep on going. Additionally, there are two types of wire and speed horses. I just don't differentiate them here. They are, controls the second call too.

Take a look at the pace scenario ranking. In high pressure races, those slow front runners become closers and win at a price. That why in LATE and EXTREME pace scenarios, that last or second to last front runner gets into the money. Heck, I don't know how the race is going to unfold. I just show tendencies. I don't mean to confuse it is just clear to me. I am sure over time it will become clear to you too. To color code the ratings, I will create a PDF file. My current PDF method will only cause more confusion. For a ten track day, there is typically over 600 pages.