Longshot survey of last 7 Kentucky Derby runs
The following is a survey of the last 7 with horses at least 25-1 that finished in the superfecta:
2023: 4th Disarm, post #11, closer, 27.12 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 3/5
3rd in Lexington with 90 BSF
2nd in LA derby with 90 BSF
superfecta payout $15,643.85 (1 dollar)
2022: 1st Rich Strike, post #20, closer, 80.80 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 1/5
3rd in Jeff Ruby 84 BSF (synthetic)
4th in JBatt 76 BSF (synthetic)
2022: 4th Simplification, post # 13, Closer, 35.3 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 1/5
3rd Florida Derby 92 (E/P r/s)
1st FOY 96 (midpack)
superfecta payout $321,500
2021: 2nd Mandaloun, post #7, E/P, 26.90 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 3/5
6th LA Derby 82
1st Risen Star 98
superfecta $9456.40
2020: 3rd Mr Big News, post #7, closer, 46.5 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 2/5
6th Blue Grass 88 BSF
1st Oaklawn stakes 86 BSF
superfecta payout $ 729.58
2019: 2nd Country House, post # 18, midpack, 65.20 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 3/5
3rd Arkansas Derby 91, closer
4th La Derby 87,closer
superfecta payout $51,400.10
2018: 4th Instilled Regard, post #15, 85.10 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 3/5
4th SA derby 90 closer
4th Risen Star 91, midpack
superfecta $ 19,618.25
2017: 2nd Lookin at Lee, post # 1, closer, 33.20 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 2/5
3rd Arkansas Derby 91
6th Rebel 86
3rd Battle of Midway, post # 11, E/P, 40-1
2nd SA Derby 88 E/P
1st OC 75K 84 P
superfecta $75,947.
In summary, it looks like closers outrun their odds in most running's of this race. Maybe it's because some of the horses just don't want to go the distance and the closers just clunk up.
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