You have to figure he adds some pace. To the outside of Fierceness, adding more peril to his prospects. Amplifies the already elevated interest in closers. And sends Bisket back to the PPs to find another horse.
Encino didn't look like a major pace factor, although he might have gotten more involved early than projected. Epic Ride projects to track more aggressively, if not lead.
His early pace figs rival the leaders—and supersede Fierceness. That introduces speed to the outside of the favorite that was notably absent before. Now Fierceness is wide
and surrounded by speed. Strengthens the case to fade him.
The added pace will will focus more attention on late runners, which is already spread thin across only three obvious options, one vying for favoritism.
Epic Ride also ensures another contestant for the coveted low-trouble tracking trip. Can he get that from the far post?
Encino was a lukewarm "use" for me underneath. Epic Ride fares no better at first glance, but might be similarly usable given a substantially better price.
Also a shout out to
this post analyzing the Blue Grass:
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
Epic Ride was widest of the speed and moving forward on both turns. So if he's at or near the front in the Derby that's going to be a problem for someone because mid-turn is far from the wire at Churchill, any early moves can take a toll at the 1/8 pole. That was why I loved Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass because of Epic Ride's presence, I can love him again in the Derby for the same reasons.
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appreciate it, good luck, good analysis.
