Holy Bull Stakes

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Valuist

No gold rail today at GP. Maybe a golden 4 path.

Listening to Mike Welsch on Steve Byk's radio show, he reiterated what I thought: the outside was definitely the better part of the track on Saturday.

But because of the fact the 1 1/16 mile races at Gulfstream have the short stretch run and a pretty short run to the first turn, the fact Shanghai Bobby was against the bias may have been negated by his style being suited to the distance and saving ground on both turns. So the best horse probably won anyways.

[magwell]

D S and F D both fell apart on the way to the gate, B I looked good but was never a factor after getting bumped around.... the top 2 if they stay sound have a future although both are suspect at 1&1/4 mile , C N is a neat little colt and he tried hard but was no match for the top 2, J C just picked up the left overs late, the others didn't belong .......

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by magwell

D S and F D both fell apart on the way to the gate, B I looked good but was never a factor after getting bumped around.... the top 2 if they stay sound have a future although both are suspect at 1&1/4 mile , C N is a neat little colt and he tried hard but was no match for the top 2, J C just picked up the left overs late, the others didn't belong .......

I must be getting old because the only initials I figured out were Bern Identity. Can't even remember the other names. But with 12 lengths separating 2nd from 3rd, its likely we won't need to remember the others.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Took a look at Itsmyluckyday last night and broke down the pedigree. What I am seeing is a a horse that is an outcross in the first 4 gens. As we move back farther we find he is from family 23 which is responsible for 4 KY Derby winners including I'LL Have Another last year. See post for tallies http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...0&postcount=50
What I see is a horse that has the Nasrullah\Princequillo crosses in the right places. Strong buildup of Tom Fool. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool
which is why I feel that IMLD is able to carry his speed long. Secretariat in his female tale also increases his chances for large heart score.
He seems to me a horse that if he stays sound should be able to carry his speed up to 1 1/8th maybe further if his training regimen stays on track.

Great info.I was curious about that TFH.However my response had zero to do with his pedigree and more about his form cycle,that a 3yo with 2 giant efforts back to back is likely to regress.I was wondering about his mares side.Ron was a solid handicap horse.

[Sysonby]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Took a look at Itsmyluckyday last night and broke down the pedigree. What I am seeing is a a horse that is an outcross in the first 4 gens. As we move back farther we find he is from family 23 which is responsible for 4 KY Derby winners including I'LL Have Another last year. See post for tallies http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...0&postcount=50
What I see is a horse that has the Nasrullah\Princequillo crosses in the right places. Strong buildup of Tom Fool. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool
which is why I feel that IMLD is able to carry his speed long. Secretariat in his female tale also increases his chances for large heart score.
He seems to me a horse that if he stays sound should be able to carry his speed up to 1 1/8th maybe further if his training regimen stays on track.

Very interesting, thanks for the info, TFH!

[plainolebill]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Great info.I was curious about that TFH.However my response had zero to do with his pedigree and more about his form cycle,that a 3yo with 2 giant efforts back to back is likely to regress.I was wondering about his mares side.Ron was a solid handicap horse.

Right after the race the connections were talking about skipping the Fountain of Youth and waiting for the Florida Derby. I don't know how that plays out but I'd rather see him run even if he loses - get all the conditioning he can before the big dance.

[elysiantraveller]

Hard to gather much from that race other than that IMLD and SB are both pretty good cruising through respectable fractions and coming home quick.

I would rate IMLD over SB at this point even considering the layoff... 1) Its Pletcher 2) Does anyone really think this horse is making it to the derby? 3) Its Pletcher....

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

Right after the race the connections were talking about skipping the Fountain of Youth and waiting for the Florida Derby. I don't know how that plays out but I'd rather see him run even if he loses - get all the conditioning he can before the big dance.

Yep.JUst got done reading that the top two are skipping the FOY.This is why we'll never have a Triple Crown winner in my opinion=nobody is fit enough to win 3 races in 5 weeks when they race normally about once every 5 weeks.I get the rationale but it would be nice to see someone have both a talented enough colt and more grandiose ambitions.That said this seems like a pretty talented,if not just faster group of 3's than in recent years.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Listening to Mike Welsch on Steve Byk's radio show, he reiterated what I thought: the outside was definitely the better part of the track on Saturday.

But because of the fact the 1 1/16 mile races at Gulfstream have the short stretch run and a pretty short run to the first turn, the fact Shanghai Bobby was against the bias may have been negated by his style being suited to the distance and saving ground on both turns. So the best horse probably won anyways.

I watched the eight GP Saturday dirt races again and I saw no evidence of any real outside bias. A substantial portion of the winning & place horses saved ground for most/all of their journeys.

Race #1: was inside speed, finished close 2nd while was two-path mostly before diving to rail in stretch and finishing 3rd

Race #2: rallied on the rail until swinging out for room at the 3/16ths pole and romped

Race #3: went gate-to-wire inside, followed on the rail all the way into the stretch and finished 2nd

Race #4: chased on the rail until moving out for racing room at the 1/4 pole, romped

Race #5: was rail speed and finished a good 2nd

Race #6: The only race where the inside horses finished right out

Race #8: went to the lead on the rail, romped, with the also rail-tripping to finish 2nd

Race #10: (Shanghai Bobby) was rail speed and finished a good 2nd far clear of the others

Track played relatively fair in my view.

[redshift1]

in retrospect I missed the boat with Bern Identity and Dewey Square they failed to compete at all unable to finish ahead of a 130-1 and a 42-1 longshot.

KyJC-G2 graduates Frac Daddy and Dewey Square appear to reaffirm the slow KyJC-G2 beyer by subsequently being distanced in the Holy Bull. Good luck to Uncaptured.

Bern Identity bumped at the start in a really flat effort. Unflattering for Goldencents going forward.

Clearly Now slight surprise since Avie's Quality backed up so badly in a recent stakes race. I see him getting bet next outing.

Shanghai Bobby becomes the 4th BC winner to lose their next start following the 2012 BC.

Nice beyer but the race itself did not provide the Derby winner IMHO. I think Shanghai Bobby is not good enough and Itsmyluckyday will have troubles away from Gulfstream Park.

.

[plainolebill]

Redshift1, I didn't see the race - could you explain why you think Itsmyluckyday will have trouble away from GP?

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

Redshift1, I didn't see the race - could you explain why you think Itsmyluckyday will have trouble away from GP?

Main reason: his performances prior to racing at GP were good but not near as good as his last two starts in south Florida. If you toss his grass start of Dec 15th he has run consecutive beyers 14 and 23 pts higher than his previous lifetime best. Obviously the counter argument is that he's an improving three year old. For me to be on the bandwagon I would have to see a similar performance at a different track and that may not happen.

He's razor sharp right now but what about 3 months down the road?

I think he surprised his connections, for some reason they avoided the elite G1 races choosing a more moderate path. It's hard to fault the horse for that but still It makes me wonder.

.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Hold on a second here,were talking about a freshly turned 3yo in January who has raced a total of 9 times and won on 3 different tracks,and is going through a time when the biggest spurt of growth and maturity will happen,and is happenning,has a solid sire and a decent dosage for distance.It's far too soon to make claims about what this horse can do in either direction.This sounds more like sour grapes than astute observation.Hell I'd think if you are a genuine fan of the game this horse ought to have your ears pricked and your tail swishing!

Originally Posted by redshift1

KyJC-G2 graduates Frac Daddy and Dewey Square appear to reaffirm the slow KyJC-G2 beyer by subsequently being distanced in the Holy Bull. Good luck to Uncaptured.

.

This. Prior to the Holy Bull I was of the mind that the KYJC might be a toss for Dewey and Frac, given the nature of the track that day at CD, but after this race they appear just too slow. Frac Daddy may have had a slight excuse due to the quarter issue but, aside from the top 2 here, the rest are tosses going forward...I'm still interested to see what Uncaptured does on return, but I think he's a much better one-turn horse right now.

[Tom]

I have 89 8.5F races at GP in my database - and this was the fastest at both the pace call and final time.