Prime Power in Bris PPs?

[Clocker]

In the Handicapping in Hell thread, several posters mentioned the Prime Power figure from Brisnet PPs. I have been considering a switch from DRF to Bris, and am leaning strongly toward Bris. I have not seen any discussion anywhere yet as to what the application of the Prime Power figure would be. Is it useful in comparing two horses, or eliminating non-contenders, or evaluating a horse's form or speed? Any insights would be appreciated.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Clocker

In the Handicapping in Hell thread, several posters mentioned the Prime Power figure from Brisnet PPs. I have been considering a switch from DRF to Bris, and am leaning strongly toward Bris. I have not seen any discussion anywhere yet as to what the application of the Prime Power figure would be. Is it useful in comparing two horses, or eliminating non-contenders, or evaluating a horse's form or speed? Any insights would be appreciated.

Bris Prime Power is one of the highest quality ratings I have ever seen, including commercial and home grown .

They are surprisingly good in ranking. In other words, the horse with the top BPP wins more than the second, the second more over the third etc.

Besides that, it is highly correlated (and reflected) to the crowd's odds not offering betting value.

After lots of experiments I no longer use BPP for betting decisions.

[Clocker]

Thanks. Would they be good for sorting out some exotics? Like if you ranked all the horses using it, and there was a big gap between the 3rd and 4th horse, would that be a good pointer to an exacta box on the top 3? Especially if one of those was long odds?

Oops, I think I just gave myself a research project for the weekend.

[DeltaLover]

Based in my research you cannot rely in the numerical distances between horses. Indeed there is some significance associated with them (for example if the top horse has more than 4 BPP point advantage it wins significantly more) still you cannot transform 'gaps' to profitable strategies because the crowd seems to be aware about them.

An approach you might want to research is combining a BPP gap with a specific handicapping factor that is well known and used by the public trying to reveal their relation. For example, assume that the top horse X has a 4 points gap over the second. In most of the cases X will start as the odds on favorite of the race. If X happens to match a certain profile (for example a horse exiting a BC route race coming of a 2 months layoff) that tends to mislead the public you might have a race where value is shifted to several longshots which you have to try to identify while ignoring the four gaper.

[raybo]

As was stated, Brisnet's Prime Power rating is indeed a very powerful rating, for selecting contenders and winners. Also stated was the fact that BPP is overbet and has no profitability value, alone. However, combined with other lesser used factors, it still has value, and probably always will. As far as "stand alone" factors go, BPP is hard to beat, they did a great job creating it.

All that being said, I think that ignoring BPP is probably not real smart. I'm not saying that you should use it as a major part of your wagering decisions, but simply knowing that the rating is very predictive must have some kind of value to almost any player. At the very least, it helps to explain the actions of the public in their wagering. And that fact should, ultimately, help the player in their own wagering approach.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by raybo

As was stated, Brisnet's Prime Power rating is indeed a very powerful rating, for selecting contenders and winners. Also stated was the fact that BPP is overbet and has no profitability value, alone. However, combined with other lesser used factors, it still has value, and probably always will. As far as "stand alone" factors go, BPP is hard to beat, they did a great job creating it.

All that being said, I think that ignoring BPP is probably not real smart. I'm not saying that you should use it as a major part of your wagering decisions, but simply knowing that the rating is very predictive must have some kind of value to almost any player. At the very least, it helps to explain the actions of the public in their wagering. And that fact should, ultimately, help the player in their own wagering approach.

I am not sure if BPP explains the actions of the public or the other way. Besides that it is so correlated to the odds that you should either use one or the other, using both is redundant.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I am not sure if BPP explains the actions of the public or the other way. Besides that it is so correlated to the odds that you should either use one or the other, using both is redundant.

In fact, it is very highly correlated to most "decent" morning lines

Looking at the gaps... the negative gaps are more interesting.

Mike

[DeltaLover]

What I would like to know is the algo used to derive BPP or at least the parameters used. They have to use more than just speed - pace figures, recency and class movements.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I am not sure if BPP explains the actions of the public or the other way. Besides that it is so correlated to the odds that you should either use one or the other, using both is redundant.

I said it "helped" explain the actions of the public, not that it explains their actions. Your second sentence is "redundant" to what I stated, the BPP often helps explain the actions of the public, meaning the odds the public produces on the tote. How one uses that information is up to them, but the smart players will figure it out, and use it as they see fit.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What I would like to know is the algo used to derive BPP or at least the parameters used. They have to use more than just speed - pace figures, recency and class movements.

Use a maiden race...concentrate on a horse with only one start. Record the BPP. Record the BPP awarded after the race (In the next start). Do this for a few horsess. This should give you a good point of reference.

Mike

[JimG]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What I would like to know is the algo used to derive BPP or at least the parameters used. They have to use more than just speed - pace figures, recency and class movements.

My guess would be the classic handicapping factors (class, pace, speed, form, connections) which the MOTOS use. Hence, good win pct and low roi as a standalone. Raybo is correct. Combine it with factor(s) the crowd does not readily see and you may have something good.

Jim

[Longshot6977]

I once charted Bris PP's by class for 18 different tracks. I used the top horse that had a gap of 5 or more points than the 2nd top rated horse. It made a difference.
It works much better on maiden races (dirt and turf) than other classes. My small sampling showed a $2.60 ROI on maiden races. The overall ROI (5 or more point gap) using all classes was $2.30.

I also found that the highest Bris PP won 14 of 16 races (88%) in my samples when the highest horse was 10 or more points than the 2nd horse (all classes). So, if you want to win a race look for a 10 point spread. The average win price of these 14 wins was $8.26, not bad. I guess not everybody is using the Bris PP's.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Longshot6977

I once charted Bris PP's by class for 18 different tracks. I used the top horse that had a gap of 5 or more points than the 2nd top rated horse. It made a difference.
It works much better on maiden races (dirt and turf) than other classes. My small sampling showed a $2.60 ROI on maiden races. The overall ROI (5 or more point gap) using all classes was $2.30.

I also found that the highest Bris PP won 14 of 16 races (88%) in my samples when the highest horse was 10 or more points than the 2nd horse (all classes). So, if you want to win a race look for a 10 point spread. The average win price of these 14 wins was $8.26, not bad. I guess not everybody is using the Bris PP's.

A lot of people are using the BPP, just not in conjunction with less popular factors, and not just using big gaps between the 1st and 2nd rankings.

As was said, BPP can be valuable, if you use it in combination with other factors. But, caution should be exercised by someone who has found a valuable way of using the BPP, that being, DO NOT PUBLISH IT. If you do, any value it had will not exist long. So, a year from now, if you run another similar test, the results will likely not be as good as those in your first test, because you made the other filters public.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by JimG

My guess would be the classic handicapping factors (class, pace, speed, form, connections) which the MOTOS use. Hence, good win pct and low roi as a standalone. Raybo is correct. Combine it with factor(s) the crowd does not readily see and you may have something good.

Jim

I agree, it's probably just another power rating, but Brisnet did a very good job on it.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Longshot6977

I once charted Bris PP's by class for 18 different tracks. I used the top horse that had a gap of 5 or more points than the 2nd top rated horse. It made a difference.
It works much better on maiden races (dirt and turf) than other classes. My small sampling showed a $2.60 ROI on maiden races. The overall ROI (5 or more point gap) using all classes was $2.30.

I also found that the highest Bris PP won 14 of 16 races (88%) in my samples when the highest horse was 10 or more points than the 2nd horse (all classes). So, if you want to win a race look for a 10 point spread. The average win price of these 14 wins was $8.26, not bad. I guess not everybody is using the Bris PP's.

Currently, a gap of 10 points produces a win rate of 55% and a losing ROI.
Mutuel prices of less than 3.00 are common.

Fifteen years ago this gap produced a small profit. However, today it is fully exploited in our parimutuel world and produces a loss.